Liverpool boss Brendan Rodgers surprised many last weekend with his early substitution of vice-captain Daniel Agger during the Reds' 4-3 victory over Swansea. Judging by the irritated shake of his head when leaving the field, the decision did not impress Agger, but Rodgers has dismissed suggestions that the Dane is unhappy with the decision.
When asked about the Agger substitution during his pre-Southampton press conference today, Rodgers criticised the media for its 'unfair' portrayal of the situation, and insisted that the change was 'no no different to what happens to any player'. He explained:
"We made the change, and we won the game. It's no different to a winger or a striker coming off. I don't judge players on their status; it's what I think the game needs at a certain time.
"Dan's taken it like the man he is. He's been outstanding in training, and he will play on Saturday, that's no question about that".
A trademark diplomatic response from Rodgers, but the bottom line is, you don't replace a senior defender after 63 minutes if he's playing to the required standard. If, say, a midfielder or an attacker came on for Agger, it would be a different story, but Rodgers replaced him with another central defender, which speaks volumes.
Only four other teams have conceded more goals that Liverpool in the league this season, so it's obvious that there are defensive issues. As Rodgers always likes to stress, defending is a collective team responsibility, but it's fair to say that Agger is not performing at an optimum level this season. The same is true of all LFC's defenders, bar Martin Skrtel, who - despite a couple of errors - continues to perform to a consistently high level.
One thing I don't get, however, is the growing view amongst some fans that Mamdou Sakho is LFC's defensive saviour. I keep seeing fans say things like 'I can't wait for Sakho to return', as if he's some kind of super-defender who will solve all of LFC's problems. That's just nonsense, IMO. The Frenchman is even more defensively suspect tha nAgger, and he's proven this already on several occasions this season. With Sakho in the team:
* 17 goals conceded in 13 games.
* 1.3 goals conceded per game.
* Just ONE clean sheet in 13 games (7% of games)
And this is LFC's alleged defensive saviour? Where is the evidence that Sakho makes any positive difference to LFC's defensive solidity? With £15m-rated Agger in the team, LFC:
* 18 goals conceded in 16 games.
* 1.1 goals conceded per game.
* SIX clean sheets in 16 games (38% of games).
Agger may have some defensive issues, but he clearly makes a more positive defensive impact on the team than Sakho. Just look at the clean-sheet disparity: Six vs. One! This alone shows that LFC are more defensively frail with Sakho in the team, which is why it's fallacious to argue that LFC's €19m signing is somehow going to improve the Reds' defence.
Author: Jaimie K
When asked about the Agger substitution during his pre-Southampton press conference today, Rodgers criticised the media for its 'unfair' portrayal of the situation, and insisted that the change was 'no no different to what happens to any player'. He explained:
"We made the change, and we won the game. It's no different to a winger or a striker coming off. I don't judge players on their status; it's what I think the game needs at a certain time.
"Dan's taken it like the man he is. He's been outstanding in training, and he will play on Saturday, that's no question about that".
A trademark diplomatic response from Rodgers, but the bottom line is, you don't replace a senior defender after 63 minutes if he's playing to the required standard. If, say, a midfielder or an attacker came on for Agger, it would be a different story, but Rodgers replaced him with another central defender, which speaks volumes.
Only four other teams have conceded more goals that Liverpool in the league this season, so it's obvious that there are defensive issues. As Rodgers always likes to stress, defending is a collective team responsibility, but it's fair to say that Agger is not performing at an optimum level this season. The same is true of all LFC's defenders, bar Martin Skrtel, who - despite a couple of errors - continues to perform to a consistently high level.
One thing I don't get, however, is the growing view amongst some fans that Mamdou Sakho is LFC's defensive saviour. I keep seeing fans say things like 'I can't wait for Sakho to return', as if he's some kind of super-defender who will solve all of LFC's problems. That's just nonsense, IMO. The Frenchman is even more defensively suspect tha nAgger, and he's proven this already on several occasions this season. With Sakho in the team:
* 17 goals conceded in 13 games.
* 1.3 goals conceded per game.
* Just ONE clean sheet in 13 games (7% of games)
And this is LFC's alleged defensive saviour? Where is the evidence that Sakho makes any positive difference to LFC's defensive solidity? With £15m-rated Agger in the team, LFC:
* 18 goals conceded in 16 games.
* 1.1 goals conceded per game.
* SIX clean sheets in 16 games (38% of games).
Agger may have some defensive issues, but he clearly makes a more positive defensive impact on the team than Sakho. Just look at the clean-sheet disparity: Six vs. One! This alone shows that LFC are more defensively frail with Sakho in the team, which is why it's fallacious to argue that LFC's €19m signing is somehow going to improve the Reds' defence.
Author: Jaimie K
Don't you wreck our dreams with your facts, JK!
ReplyDeleteSakho will fix everything and everything will be fine forever!
You're right, in part. The stats you provide are correct, but it depends on the quality of the teams involved in the Agger games and the Sakho games. I want Sakho back so Toure will be out, seen enough of his senior
ReplyDeletemoments and at this stage of the season, we can't afford any more.
Yeah JK! Didn't you know Sakho was the second coming?
ReplyDeleteAgger gets bullied by strong physical players, Lambert will have a field day Saturday.
ReplyDeleteI like Sakho. He sticks to his man in the box like glue. He's good in the air too.
ReplyDeleteThat's such an odd comparison when Sakho isn't solely responsible for keeping clean sheets, and they have both played in different systems against different qualities of opponents. If you compare their defensive input, then it's clear that Sakho is a far more effective player.
ReplyDeleteSakho has 1.8 tackles per game compared to 1.4 for Agger. He also has significantly more clearances, interceptions, blocks and has committed less individual errors. Sakho also passes more with a much better accuracy.
agger is not strong enough in the air imo we need sakho for big physical teams but has to improve with the ball onthe deck neither agger or sakho fill me with confidence skrtel needs to stop swinging out of players and play the ball
ReplyDeleteI agree that interceptions, blocks and committing less individual errors are important but how many tackles isn't. Paulo Maldini averaged 0.5 tackles a game through out his career.The others are more down to being able to read the game however saying that being able to tackle is useful if you're playing the right style and right league.
ReplyDeleteVery true. Sakho has 2.1 interceptions per game and 8.1 clearances. Agger has 0.9 and 5.5 respectively.
ReplyDeleteSakho has the superior stats, we may have conceded more with Sakho but I feel more relaxed when Sakho plays than when Agger plays.
ReplyDeleteEvidence of our eyes? Sakho is a very good young defender who can dominate opponents for strength and pace, and whose positioning and aggression are also impressive. Agger has lost a bit of pace, seems distracted and uncertain during games, and has overall been a very likeable, technically good, but ultimately somewhat disappointing player for LFC over his career at the club.
ReplyDeleteThere are lies, damn lies and JK stats
ReplyDeleteI hate the attitude of so many fans, always needing to put the blame on someone. Agger is not perfect but 1 good match and everyone will be saying how he is the solution for us again. Don't forget players go in and out of form such as Gerrard, Lucas, Johnson, Allen, Sterling etc. I can remember people saying how these players were finished but then one good game and every one loves them again. Don't forget Agger's just back from injury and needs to be minded so I'm sure BR had that on his mind.
ReplyDeleteI would play Agger ahead of Sakho ATM but this article is a misappropriation of stats, Clean sheets per games, goals conceded per games are not a judge of defensive ability in a player, in a team yes but a player? No. Goals can be conceded from individual mistakes.
ReplyDeleteWhen we played 3-5-2 it was damning defensively because of the formation not the players, also the quality of teams we faced when Sakho played was it greater?
If you look at Sakhos individual performance he makes more clearances per 90 than Agger and wins more tackles than Agger per 90 (squawka), he makes more interceptions than any other Liverpool centre back per 90 and hass the highest pass completion % of our CBs. He has made almost half the defensive errors Agger has this season per 90. Agger wins more in the air though was was surprising.
My main concern with Agger is he horribly out of form, if you look at Aggers stats from last season he trumphs everyone of our CBs this season outside of Sakho in his interceptions. His defensive errors last season per 90 is almost zero. The last two seasons he has stayed mostly injury free which contribute to his great defensive stats last season being in an out of the side this year has made his inconsistent in his form.
This is a misconception, Agger actually wins more aerial duels than Sakho per 90 mins, In fact it is the one area he has stayed consistently good statistically. His tackles lost and mistakes made are the areas where he has considerably failed compared to last season.
ReplyDeleteWhere Sakho improves over Agger is intercepting the ball (he is actually better than any other CB we have), stopping through balls to players playing on the shoulder of the last defender. Agger tends to get bullied off the ball by strong target men and powerful centre forwards which leads to more tackles lost (and area he has suffered this season but not last season, his fitness may play a part). Agger is more effective against teams that play it to the head of the striker rather than the feet.
When we played Stoke/ Villa at the start of the season they both employed target men which resulted in Clean Sheets for Agger&co, When United came to Anfield they attempted a large amount of crosses which Agger performed well against but when he played against Southhampton who press high and play it mostly along the ground he was very poor (he was taken off before the 60' mark).
Sakho has often made last ditch efforts that have stopped teams from tieing and beating us on several occasions. While the stats show your argument to be true they don't show the entire story. You are a good journalists in the fact you twist the "stats" in favor of your argument. However, if you look at tackles and interceptions stats lean toward Sakho. But actual contribution would have to go to Sakho i can think of 3 game saving tackles/interceptions he has made and not a single one for Agger.
ReplyDeleteYou cant use team stats to compare two individuals. You would have to use individual stats such as duel won, interceptions, passing accuracy, etc, etc. Stats such as clean sheets and goals conceded are meant for the team. Sakho is a superior player to Agger all day long.
ReplyDeleteThe back four will be addressed in the summer I believe. 90% certain Agger will be moved on. Ilori will come back into the team. Flannagan has proved his worth and will continue to develop. Enrique will also probably be moved on if a quality left back can be bought. Johnson definitely will be going. I can see that BR is learning fast and I don't believe we will have such defensive frailties next year. Hard to change much right now with injuries as they are.
ReplyDeleteI'd suggest most people argue that Sakho will improve the defence because of the actual characteristic he shows. He's a much more physical presence than Agger and seems better able to handle the more substantially sized forwards. So it's people making an assessment based on what they've seen, and how they adjudge the player to perform on the pitch. I think that's fair enough. You see a player do his stuff on the pitch and you decide for yourself if he's good or not.
ReplyDeleteAs for those statistics - certainly there is no evidence that Sakho will improve things so of course it's a judgement call. The statistics indicate a correlation, not a cause and effect relationship. It would require quite a bit more analysis to accurately conclude that Agger being on the field instead of Sakho is the reason why there is a lower goals per game ratio in those periods.
I always get the feeling that Jaimie sometimes relies on stats a little too much, but never the less, I still love your work JK!
ReplyDeletehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Correlation_does_not_imply_causation
ReplyDeleteI'm not trying to be a smart ass, I'm just giving people information from which they will undoubtedly make their own conclusions.
Depends on the nature of the tackles. If most of the tackles Sakho makes are potentially goal saving, then they're important. But like you, I still feel more comfortable with Sakho on the pitch. He's going to turn into a real world class defender in my opinion.
ReplyDeleteIf we can still get good money for Agger you'd have to wonder what Rodgers really thinks. He'd never tell the press his honest views of Agger and what he plans, but you have to wonder why Agger is still there given that we had offers for him last season. Consider that he was made vice captain and he's one of those Liverpool to the end kind of players who'll stay here as long as he's wanted and given the chance to play. If Barca couldn't turn his head then for me that's a big deal. I don't see there is a clear case to indicate that Rodgers wants him gone. As soon as he's available he seems to be first choice and that vice captain role is a big deal.
ReplyDeleteEnrique is a lost cause - we have no choice but to try and get him fit and playing again otherwise it's a massive waste. I think the club will invest in getting him right. Whatever is going on in his knee is not a simple issue but maybe the right surgeon can sort him out.
I still think the Johnson situation is about the contract and the money. I think Rodgers wants him to stay but we're not going to offer him a new bumper contract. I think as a player we're happy to have him and if he wants to stay here under reasonable wage conditions then he's got a job for another year or two.
Then they are last ditch tackles which I have nothing against. I don't think Skrtel is the way forward either, don't get me wrong he is a great defender but I feel panicky with him defending at times from set pieces or crosses as he often seems to drag players down to the ground which is a bit nervy when we are only leading by a goal.
ReplyDeleteAll very very good points. Well done.
ReplyDeleteI feel the same way about Skrtel. No matter how much good work he does, I always know he still has room for a f*** up that will cost us. He was finally bitten on the arse against Swansea.
ReplyDeleteI agree because he is technically good on the ball that can mislead you at times. In saying that I hope he proves me wrong on the weeken as BR says he's starting.
ReplyDeletehe doesn't rely on stats to much he just picks the stat that confirm his argument rather than the stats that actually matter. he choose team stats versus individual as has been pointed out, he also fails to mention the likes of the opposition. Sakho has faced more of the top 10 teams where as Agger has typically faced the lower half of the table.
ReplyDeleteSkrtel has conceded 35 goals in 25 matches. That is 1.4 goals conceded per match this season.
ReplyDeleteI think using these stats to come to the conclusion that Sakho has no positive influence is moot.
I agree, I just pointed out that with Skrtel in the team we have conceded 35 goals in 25 matches this season which is an average of 1.4 goals conceded per game.
ReplyDeleteWith Sakho we have conceded 1.3 goals.
How can you use these stats to conclude what a player contributes defensively?
I repeat many times !!!! Put agger to DM then all problem solve
ReplyDeleteSquare peg in a round hole...
ReplyDeleteWhat I'm saying is he relies on stats, and then it's used to back up his argument, as you're saying.
ReplyDeleteLol. I think this pretty much ends the discussion. Just goes to show how one can twist and turn stats just to suit his argument.
ReplyDeleteHe took agger off cos he was being bullied by bony and I think br felt that toure was a better match physically for him. You could argue that his decision was vindicated by the fact we've won the game. On paper skrtel agger looks an ideal partnership but for whatever reason it doesn't seem to work. I also seem to remember us keeping 3 consecutive clean sheets with the toure agger partnership at the start of the season, yet nobody seems to be calling for them to be paired together again. Either way sakho returning from injury can only be a good thing
ReplyDeleteI don't think Skrtel has been as good as gets made out at times. He has done some things quite well but he is the most senior Liverpool defender this season (being at the club a long time and playing more games) and he is Slovakia captain. He should e organising the defence much better than he has. He chooses to drop off far too much too. Sakho on the other hand wants to close down and play on the front foot. When he was in the team we played a higher line and there was less space to work in. Thats not to say individual errors didn't occur (as this is one of our biggest problems re conceding goals) but that is not his fault. For instance when defending a set piece he defends properly not concentrating on the man, getting wrong side not aware where the ball is. Not grappling so much he could give away stupid penalties and not getting bullied.
ReplyDeletethe stats above themselves show nothing. What can be discerned from them? Firstly we only know what goals were scored when those players played. Not who we played against, who's errors lead to goal, what kind of formation or midfield system we employed (such as Southampton or Newcastle having acres to run through the midfield) what kinds of goals were scored (screamers no one could have done anything about or an easy knock in due to a defensive mistake), what kind of possession did we have? Context is important and with those above correlation does not mean causation. This as every statistician will tell you is very important to remember Surely a fairer assessment using stats would be their actual contributions as players which I have put up before in the past and they show that defensively and offensively Sakho is only bettered in the defence by Skrtel. Which given the difference in age and premier league experience you can forgive.
The clean sheet catorgory is a funny one as it neglects Mignolet's form. Correct me if I am wrong but did Agger not concede a penalty that was saved by Mings? Could there be more examples like this? Is that not one of the clean sheets? Or first choice full backs giving support. Johnson having a much better start to the season then he went on to.To reiterate correlation DOES NOT necessarily mean causation. To judge the defenders judge them on what they have done themselves. This can be seen on whoscored, OPTA etc.
I have just finished ranting about that very same thing then read some replies and your sensible one shows I didn't need to.
ReplyDeleteYeah such as one of the clean sheets he points to was against Hull, but in the previous game Agger played we lost by a decent margin. Two clean sheets were against Bournmouth and Oldham and another was against Stoke when the penalty Agger gave away was saved by Mignolet. Sakho's 'ONE' clean sheet was against Spurs! Look at that again and decide of the information I have just given actually means anything. It doesn't as it lacks lots of vital information.
ReplyDeleteBrilliant. Exactly mate.
ReplyDeleteYou and others are completely missing the point. It really is amusing how you're so desperate to defend Sakho that you can't see the wood for the trees. As usual.
ReplyDelete* Skrtel has played in far more games than Agger and Sakho, so the team will concede more. That is blindingly obvious.
* Agger and Sakho have each played 12/13 games, which is half as many as Skrtel. This is another glaringly obvious point, yet your ignore it.
* As such, it's fairer to compare Agger and Sakho - which is what I've done - as they play in the same position (left-footed centre-back), and they've played a similar number of games.
* I've used the stats to offer a persuasive argument about defensive solidity, not an absolute statement.
Nonsense. It's the same old story: when you agree with the stats, everything is fine. When you disagree, then suddenly, the stats are suspect; they're cherry-picked, and you introduce endless exceptions in a bid to discredit the stats. It's football fan bias 101.
ReplyDeleteAgain, it's amusing how people will come up with any excuse to discredit stats they don't like. Now we have to look at the quality of the teams against which LFC achieved clean sheets? Could you be any more pedantic? If I'd actually done that, I'm sure you could've come up with some other excuse, like 'but you have to look at the quality of players in the team', and if I'd done that, it would've been 'but you have to look at the experience of the manager', and on and on ad infinitum.
ReplyDeleteIt's amusing how condescending you get when your questioned. The stats are incomplete, they show a trend that doesn't prove anything. It's not pedantic to look at context. If your going to use 'stats' to make a point then this is exactly what needs to be looked at. The two players mentioned one has played against teams leagues below and more teams outside of the top ten. You think this is not relevant? Why because it makes the 'stats' seem hollow? It's because they are. It's not about excuses. I personally like being made to think a different way. I am as subject to bias as you or anyone else but I am willing to say 'ok then that is actually quite persuasive'. The problem with your article is that it isn't.
ReplyDeleteLudicrous.
ReplyDeleteBournmouth are 17th in the Championship and Oldham are 15th of league one. Are you seriously saying that this doesn't skew the stats a little? Are you saying that if Sakho had of played those games we would have not gotten clean sheets? The league and cups are comparable as we have played United and Arsenal. Neither player playing against Notts County I think. Removing those two games only affects Agger's clean sheet tally slightly but it does change the numbers and that is what you dislike. The 1.28 goals conceded against teams does not show the disparity you would like so you ignore it. Now we could say that of those games (all of which against premiership sides) Agger has faced 5 of the top half and 8. So that slight difference of 0.02 goals seems even less impressive, especially when you consider the clean sheets he does have it seems alarming as it seems to indicate that when Agger is in the team and we are conceding we are conceding more. With Sakho in the team we have not conceded more than 2 goals. We have conceded 3 twice with Agger in the team. I am not saying that means anything just how silly stats without proper context can be.
ReplyDeleteits not bias at all. you however are. while sakho makes me nervous on the pass I feel way better with him defensively. like tons of us have pointed out you picked stats that are team and favour your argument vs indindividual stats that actually show a more complete story. so there is bias, but your pointing at the wrong person, you should look in the mirror
ReplyDeleteWhatever stats I choose, you and others will always use this argument because you disagree with the conclusions raised by the stats. It's the simple. It's a disingenuous argument, which consequently has little merit.
ReplyDeleteyour stats show a very limited view and no where near the entire picture. you are wrong. you cannot take TEAM STATS for INDIVIDUALS. The level of oppsition is also a huge factor.
ReplyDeletealso, you need to ban yourself for being rude and disrespectful to your readers with your disingenuous comment. we know as much if not more than you. we just decide not to take such a limitied view. your “snipping" is it of control lately
Then how about we use stats that can actually be used to compare two players, rather than team stats that give no indication of players individual impact or quality? Oh hang on, that doesn't fit in with your argument.
ReplyDeleteNot true at all, it's when you choose a very limited range of stats to pursue an argument (not aimed at you just football fans in general).
ReplyDeleteAs an example, Sakho this season has been statistically our best defender in most areas but he is far more susceptible in the air than Agger/Skrtel and he wouldn't have got a look in if the Agger was statistically performing the way he was last season.
There is a statistic for everything only when you at all the statistics do you get the real picture. Another example is the Assists stat, it is almost useless in my opinion. Clear Cut chances created are a far more reliable measure of creativity than Assists especially for players in teams with poor strikers/finishers.
You are also using a limited range of stats to make your argument, so you're being hypocritical. Sakho's individual stats are arguably irrelevant. The irrefutable fact is, with him in the team, LFC kept only 1 clean sheet in 13 games. That stat matters more than how many interceptions he made overall because it directly impacts on LFC's ability to finish in the top four.
ReplyDeleteThere are so many variables to consider when looking at clean sheets, who were the back four, what formation, opposition, individual errors, playing with a defensive mid? etc. No manager in their right mind judges an individuals performance on clean sheets unless they were individually responsible for conceding similar to Skrtel against Man City last year.
ReplyDeleteIndividual stats at least tell you something about the performance of a player (and yes they also can be easily manipulated to make an argument but I also said Agger was the better option atm in my opinion). David Luiz has kept 4 clean sheets this season, but one could easily argue this is due to Chelseas' defensive set up and style of play rather than his individual defensive ability (IMO I think he works better as a defensive mid).