After five months of the Premier League season, Liverpool are currently right where they need to be: 4th place in the Premier League table, a mere six points behind leaders Arsenal. Half a season is arguably a good indicator of how the campaign may ultimately pan out, and looking at Liverpool's first 21 games over the last twenty years versus final league position is an interesting exercise, and seems to suggest that Reds are on track for a top four finish.
Things went a bit pear-shaped over Christmas with two straight defeats against Manchester City and Chelsea, but those two games were always going to be tough, and if the defeats had come three months apart, I doubt the furore would be so intense.
Instead of folding, though, LFC have battled back into the top four. The question is, will Rodgers' team be able to maintain that position until the end of the season?
FIRST 21 LEAGUE GAMES COMPARISON: 1993-2014
KEY POINTS
* 40+ points accrued in the first 21 games on FOUR prior occasions, and each time, the club finished the season in the top four.
* The Reds are already 11 points better off than at the same point last year, when the team had accrued a mere 31 points in 21 games.
* On the two occasions the club finished 2nd (2002 and 2009), the team maintained a PPG average of over 2.0 for the entire season.
Make of the figures what you will, but based on past performance, a genuine league challenge seems like a remote possibility at this stage, but finishing in the top four appears to be a very strong possibility.
Author: Jaimie K
Things went a bit pear-shaped over Christmas with two straight defeats against Manchester City and Chelsea, but those two games were always going to be tough, and if the defeats had come three months apart, I doubt the furore would be so intense.
Instead of folding, though, LFC have battled back into the top four. The question is, will Rodgers' team be able to maintain that position until the end of the season?
FIRST 21 LEAGUE GAMES COMPARISON: 1993-2014
KEY POINTS
* 40+ points accrued in the first 21 games on FOUR prior occasions, and each time, the club finished the season in the top four.
* The Reds are already 11 points better off than at the same point last year, when the team had accrued a mere 31 points in 21 games.
* On the two occasions the club finished 2nd (2002 and 2009), the team maintained a PPG average of over 2.0 for the entire season.
Make of the figures what you will, but based on past performance, a genuine league challenge seems like a remote possibility at this stage, but finishing in the top four appears to be a very strong possibility.
Author: Jaimie K
The mirror is a paper who is involved in more rumours than any other paper baring the news of the world yet has a success rate of about 20% not even in the top ten. The highest being 33%. So not even the most accurate gets anywhere near 50% success in their rumours. So if not lies then just plain wrong information is regualarly being printed. To make the point more clear there is absolutely no quote in any paper by anyone from Liverpool FC saying they see Rodriguez as a replacement for Suarez. Sometimes bandwagons need to be got on.
ReplyDeleteSo like Pigman I agree that as stated in the article and in footballing terms I have no doubt that Ropdriguez is not and has not been considered a direct replacement for Suarez by anyone involved with Liverpool.
Bravo! You just totally manufactured a set of stats there. Where did you get the '20% success rate' stat, and the other figures you just pulled out of the air? That's right - you made them up.
ReplyDeleteGreat research, thx! To maintain this form or better, we must win the games we are supposed to win...against lower placed teams...and pull off some draws/wins against the other giants. This is possible since most of them have to play at Anfield yet. I know I could go back and look, but in how many of those 40+ point years did we have the added burden of European football to plan around? That should be factored into our relative progress also.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.footballtransferleague.co.uk/newspaper_statistics.aspx
ReplyDeleteCome on now Jamie moderating my reply? Bravo to sir. I didn't think you were juvenile.
ReplyDeleteFootball transfer league newspaper statistics. So if they are just made up it was by them not me.
ReplyDeleteYes, made up by them. Whatever their methodology is, I sincerely doubt it is in any way accurate.
ReplyDeleteGreat piece. Lets hope the momentum keeps going. 7 of our last 9 away games are against teams in the bottom half, this is very encouraging.
ReplyDeleteLooking forward to games on a tuesday and wednesday night next season :)
Superb stuff.Hope we don't f**k up in the second half.
ReplyDeleteWe have already won both of our games in the second half of the season. Keep the faith :-)
ReplyDeleteI think we can still win it. In the past we had a way of turning up for big games and drawing against the likes of Stoke and Fulham at home. We are ruthlessly putting these teams away now. Us playing City and Chelsea back to back kinda dampered things a bit. This team is ready. To play both those teams so close with our small squad and injuries away from home. Then off the back of that found a way to beat Hull, relatively easily, then score 5 at Stoke makes me believe we will be in it right to the end. Two results have me believing. @Stoke and @Spurs are two places when i saw the fixture list in the past, I'd either mark it off as a loss or most a draw and we score 10 goals and conceded 3 and won both. We have all the teams in the top 7 bar United at home and these teams are probably going to come hoping for a draw when in recent times they would think they can win. We can go anywhere and win, and Rodgers putting Gerrard in the holding role makes me believe he is gonna put the foot on the gas pedal and attack. Our past recent managers were notorious for putting caution before winning and attack. It used to baffle me....why? Because the difference between a loss and a draw is 1 point, but the difference between a draw and a win is 2 points. I think Rodgers could have put more caution particularly against Chelsea....because of the point swing with your direct rivals but i like his gun ho tactics. I don't think any team can stop us from scoring. I do think we need to strengthen in midfield, Either get a more athletic CM or a goalscoring AM. Coutinho finishing is woeful at the moment and we could have a ton more goals if he was more clinical. And Lucas days are numbered imo, If we continue to get better he will be a back up. I know people get sentimentally attached to players but if we are gonna continue to rise, hanger ons are gonna be replaced or reduced to bench roles. And i don't think any player bar Suarez that has been here more then 2 years and starting to be irreplaceable if we are really trying to be elite and not just good.
ReplyDeleteI think if we get 86 points we are winning the league, i really do. . Our ace card is these teams will start to suffer either from fatigue when the CL resume or moral drop when they get knocked out. And btw remember in 08/09 we started off the second half of the season quite poorly with alot of draws
ReplyDeleteThe problem is that in most of the Houllier and Benitez years the main competition comprised of three clubs MU, Arsenal and latterly Chelsea. In the last few years Man City and Spurs have joined that competition. This means that we may not be able to judge by past results. Even if we rely on MU not being able to recover in the second half of the season, there is the other lot looking strong. I think this season will be one of the toughest in the last 7/8 years to get into the top 4. That is why we need to sign several top class additions to the team in this transfer window.
ReplyDeleteWE TAKING THE LEAGUE F THEM OTHER TEAMS CITY WILL LOSE PLAYERS AND FOCUS CUZ OF UCL SAME WITH GUNNERS AND CHELSEA. I AM LOVING THE SMALL FACT THAT WE ARE PUTTING LOWER TEAMS AWAY NOW. LFC can always consider either losing or tieing vs top 4 Teams but that is only 12-24 points that could be up for grabs and if we put lower table teams away we are talking more than 50 points.
ReplyDeleteYeah, all those draws against the teams below us cost us the league in 08/09. We drew 11 games that season. This season we are playing to win and it shows with only 3 draws. Onwards and Upwards!
ReplyDeletei like llalana i love them darting runs past defender and holdimd mids he always does kinda reminds me of vintage Lampard.
ReplyDeleteIf Gerrard is going to play the deeper midfielder from now on then Lucas' days are definitely numbered or will find himself on the bench. Lucas unfortunately offers nothing attacking wise.
ReplyDeleteThe other positive this season is seeing Anfield become a fortress again. For many previous years teams knew that they could come to Anfield and easily steal points from us. That has not been the case this season!
Suarez - Sturridge - Rodriguez!!! OK, this is too good to be true!!!
ReplyDeleteI agree...and don't forget that if Sterling isn't called offside and a couple of sitters aren't flubbed, we easily could have beat City at the Etihad.
ReplyDeleteJust been reading about the rigors of the site I mentioned and they have been compiling data for six years Jaimie. To just say it is wrong because you disagree seems against what you usually seem to hold to be important in most discussions. Facts are facts in the end. Perhaps we should ignore whoscored and opta too?
ReplyDeleteTitle is still a definite possibility. Hopefully Arsenal, City and especially Chelsea have a few slip-ups and draw amongst themselves, with us not having any. If the current squad stays healthy, all is good, some further reinforcements are welcome.
ReplyDeleteAnyone else want Man U to beat chelsea this weekend?
ive always liked him and thought we should have gambled on him while he was at burnley, same with charlie austin and the likes of jordan rhodes before they moved. theres nothing to say he would have developed as well if he moved to us earlier on though, whereas now he is very much a player that could add quality depth to our squad. just one of many that could to be honest (as long as the over-inflated price for english talent isnt too ridiculous)
ReplyDeleteI cant believe were interested in Jay Rodriguez at this moment. He's a good player as was Charlie Adam, Stewart Downing etc, etc. My mate is a Burnley nut and said he will never be a Liverpool player. Such is the step up.
ReplyDeleteOptimistic line-up. Sterling at right-back/right wing-back and two up front?
ReplyDeleteCarra and Redknapp write for The Mail, don't they?
ReplyDeleteWould be a very good addition as a squad player, but he could command a starting place at so many good sides, I don't see why he'd move to us. I wouldn't be willing to offer him a role as a guaranteed starter.
ReplyDeleteNo. Man U is a direct contender for 4th spot, which is our first priority. We don't want them breathing down our necks all the time.
ReplyDeleteNo...but I don't think they have a chance without Rooney and RVP anyway.
ReplyDeleteI only think Gerrard was deeper because he returned from injury earlier than expected. He rarely ventured up the pitch, covering far less ground. I don't think it was tactical, and Lucas certainly did not have a bad game at all. You may argue differently but statistically Lucas and Allen provide nothing going forward, so Lucas for now keeps his place.
ReplyDeleteI guess 0-0 like last time then. Chelsea need to start losing - they don't deserve to be at the top with their boring style.
ReplyDeleteCheers Jamie, that's what I was after when I posted the other week. Good stuff.
ReplyDeleteyeah...but boring or not, it's been good enough to get them the results, which is all that matters. At the moment, we will take whichever style that gets us the premier league.
ReplyDeleteKeep Lucas, jettison Allen.
ReplyDeleteI don't know why some people think Liverpool are Barcelona reincarnated, and all 11 players on the field need to either score or makes assists. It's just ridiculous and maybe a reality check is needed.
Lucas does a fantastic job of the role he's asked to undertake for the team. Namely, to break up opposition attacks, make tackles and interceptions, and shield the back 4 as best he can. As a result, we normally have 5 other players responsible for attacking and scoring goals, together with the occasional overlapping full back.
Yeah, I too would like Lucas to score the odd goal or provide an assist. But if he doesn't I am not going to hold it against him. Please, please review his stats against other holding midfield player as he compares very favourably, especially his consistency and lack of mistakes. We fans sometimes don't appreciate when we have a good thing.
Great article!! Some thoughts:
ReplyDelete1. The table shows how good and consistent the Evans' years were - was there really a need to bring in Houllier? I know we had a great 2001, but on reflection did he make us any better?
2. The table also shows that Rafa was even more consistent that Evans, averaging over 2 points a game in 3 out of 4 seasons. Shame about the last year when he got things wrong and unnecessarily embroiled himself in the owner politics. It's taken 5 seasons for us to be competitive for a top 4 slot.
3. BR is aiming at 2 points a game, and hoping that will be enough for 4th spot. Let's hope we maintain this consistency for the remainder of the season.
Well if we win it, we'll win it in style. It's not lack of defensive style/tactics, but defensive errors that have cost us. Hope this gap gets closed, we knock chelsea out of the park.
ReplyDeleteI agree but if you move Lucas higher up the pitch people (not me though) will start demanding more and will start throwing stats around. The only replacement currently for Lucas is Allen, and they both have the same goal return, that is no goal return.
ReplyDeleteTherefore, everyone should stick to their regular position. If Gerrard can't handle the physical requirements yet, he shouldn't be playing and should not be accommodated into the team.
A) I wouldn't move Lucas up the pitch.
ReplyDeleteB) It is a fallacy to think Allen can replace Lucas - Allen is (unfortunately) not that good. Or put in another way, Lucas is far superior to Allen in the holding midfield role.
C) That leaves what to do with SG? If BR wants to play him in the quarterback role, as opposed to the holding midfield role that Lucas occupies, then he needs to find a system to accommodate both of them.
All I would say, is that our best midfield used to comprise of SG, Alonso and Mascherano. I don't know why we can't simply play Hendo, SG, and Lucas in the same roles. I'm not saying they'll be as good. But from what we have to pick from, that'd be my preference.
Equally, Rafa often played SG out on the right to ensure central midfield stability. Hendo can do the same if we play 4-4-2. So again, I'd always have Lucas + SG in the middle of a three or four. Leaving a choice of Courtinho (my pref) or Sterling to support SAS.
Simples :-)
Just one further point. What we really need to buy in this transfer window (to maintain our push for top 4 or higher), is a solid goal-scoring attacking midfield player how can play alongside SAS.
ReplyDeleteThat would give us either a 4-4-2 (attacking/goal scoring left midfield player), or a 4-3-3 (versatile/fluid attacking midfield player). Courtinho and Sterling would then be either rotated or good sub options to change the game. Then for the first time, BR will have a plan B option if his first 11 isn't doing it after 60 mins.
As much as I think he's a lazy good for nothing, I would take a punt on Berbatov (low cost, potentially high quality) could work as Catona & Teddy did for Utd in the 90's. Mata would be great but Chelsea wont sell. Which leads back to Saleh if we can agree on a price drops.
I doubt we can get someone English for 7mn. If so, he can be a good signing for bench. However, it's a bit insult for Suarez to think Rodriguez as his replacement.
ReplyDeleteTheres "apparently" going to be an exodus over there and this lad is one that i would love to bring in.
ReplyDeleteExperienced in england, can obviously handle it and fits our system well.
PULL THE TRIGGER BR!
*Definitely not a replacement for LS, dont think anyone would really believe that.
If Gerrard plays the 1 in a 1-2 midfield Lucas becomes redundant. Rodgers favors that in midfield and we did quite well with Henderson and Allen doing the pressing. Lucas is better than Gerrard defensively, but if you havent noticed, that is Rodgers' second thought. Gerrard is better at dictacting play and switching it quicker, things Lucas is deficient at. And in any case Gerrard is no slouch defensively and he will adapt to it. I prefer our mentality now, we attack the opposition instead of waiting to be attacked. And having Gerrard deep simply gives us another option particularly on counter attacks.
ReplyDeleteHistorically, the team that has the best balance between attack and defence wins the league. Although we are playing attractive attacking football - much like the Evans' team of the early 90's - we're doing OK against the average teams.
ReplyDeleteBut when we come across the better teams, we lose. Also, we've had a number of games where we've been coasting, and then we let in a soft goal, and we back under needless pressure.
Sure I like attacking play. But there has to be a place for a player like Lucas - always. We just need the right formation and player with the appropriate strengths to create a winning system.
Evans is the only manager out of the lot to finish in the top 4 each season.
ReplyDeleteAllen gets actually gets into the box and shoots plus his Allen's movement is on a totally different level compared to Lucas. Lucas cannot even dribble! Henderson, and Coutinho are struggling to score themselves but the difference. I would have Allen playing further forward all day long compared to Lucas.
ReplyDeleteI thought we had this discussion already :-)
Gerrard actually did well playing the deeper role. His distribution of the ball from that deep is something the team can use to it's advantage. He won all his tackles too plus Gerrard also won the ball back 16 times vs Stoke.
ReplyDeleteI would like to see him given a proper run in the deeper role.
Do Coutinho or Henderson really have a goal return too?
ReplyDeleteCoutinho, Henderson and Allen have all showen that they have the ability to beat defenders with the ball. Lucas on the other hand...
Good work Jaimie. I am still not getting that feeling of top 4 squad though.
ReplyDeleteAll true. However, I'm very happy for Chelsea to grab some points this week at United's expense. We gotta worry about 4th first, and we need as little competition for it as possible!
ReplyDeleteI don't know about this...our second halves to seasons are generally better, but there's so much more competition for top 4 now than there used to be. It used to be that pure top 4, daylight, then the rest (with Everton sometimes occupying daylight's spot). But now the rise of spurs and city has just blown it wide open.
ReplyDeletealot right? 90% is bullshit! how many artlcles ive read about rumours that never come true most are on this website! poor journalism , just wait for the transfer to actually happen for once! ive been listening to you talk about suarez leaving for the last 3 years let it go man let it go he just signed a five year contract and no one is paying his buyout clause, were gna be in cl next year he aint going anywere unless a ridiculous offer comes in.
ReplyDeleteJamie K.. Please stop writing such utter rubbish.. There are no current LFC transfers in the public domain but making material up instead doesn't reflect well on your intention to be a journalist... ;-)
ReplyDeleteNotice no reply from Jaimie. Happens all the time. Once someone puts up facts he has nothing to say. He argues the point when there's no dacts but as soon as someone else is right, goes quiet.
ReplyDeleteOr is it.just me that thinks that?
The owner of Southampton has said, there will absolutely be no players leaving this January, End of Story.
ReplyDeleteBefore the season I said that our target should be 2ppg rather than any league position or anything else, and right now we remain right on track.
ReplyDeleteIt looks like the current Top 3 are finally beginning to show true title form (+2.2ppg), but we shouldn't be concerned with what anybody else is doing.
As long as we pick up at least 76 points by the end of the season we should be satisfied, even in the unfortunate event that it does fail to achieve a Top 4 position.
Evans was the only manager where I generally enjoyed most of our games every year, even if I didn't enjoy the results so much.
ReplyDeleteAnd Rodgers is finally bringing that back!
It does suck to see Chelsea up there with the underwhelming football they've delivered this year - the performance against us just shows that they are holding a lot back and capable of a lot more though.
ReplyDeleteUnfortunately, they're going to be improved considerably next year when Mourinho gets the size and physicality in the team that he loves, and their returning loanees give them a significant upgrade up front, a significant upgrade in goal, and Matic gives them that upgrade in midfield also :(
Yeah, the Evans years co-coincided with the Keegan years @ Newcastle. They were great thrilling roller-coaster rides. But ultimately didn't produce any end product.
ReplyDeleteThe FA Cup Final against Utd for me typifies that era. IMHO we had the better team, but Utd found a way to win in a drab affair. We only came away the "Spice Boys" label due to those awful white suits.
I agree, SG can play the deep lying quarterback role.
ReplyDeleteIt's just that BR needs to ensure the formation and players around are right.
I'm all for being optimistic but realism is the order of the day - we will not be winning the league this season. Chelsea and City have tremendous squads which they are likely to add to this month and Arsenal have a ridiculous midfield whereas we are a Suarez / Sturridge leg break away from Europa League qualification. Forth place is the achievable target and I think we will get it, anything higher will be an amazing bonus.
ReplyDeleteThe thing that everybody overlooks is the main difference imo - we weren't so massively rewarded for failure in the Evans days, so 4th was seen as disappointing.
ReplyDeleteIn latter years, the same league positions were rewarded with entry to the money spinning league, which should have enabled the club to kick on as a result.
Do you vote me down all the time?
ReplyDeleteYes we have. However, statistically they are on par.
Yes they do. Coutinho has not matched the standard he set last season and Hendo has shown continuous improvement and has recently provided goals and assists.
ReplyDeleteGerrard already does occupy a deeper role, ever since Hendo stormed into the team, Gerrard took over a more supportive role with Lucas. Gerrard is not a defensive midfielder and is still capable of playing much further up. I don't see why the team should just accommodate him at all times, IMO the only reason he was so deep was because he could not handle a full match in a higher position, otherwise this tactical move would of occurred a long time ago, especially when Lucas was injured.
ReplyDeleteFinally, Lucas and Gerrard have often shared the very deep role of moving in between both centre backs during a match. Against Stoke, it was strictly Gerrard, which further indicates it was more of a fitness thing than tactical. Else, we would of seen this long ago, especially when Lucas was injured, Allen too.
ReplyDeleteRodgers yesterday said that the plan is for Gerrard to take up the role of the pivot. It is in black and white and from the horses mouth.
ReplyDeleteI like Lucas but I can guarantee that he will not be playing the attacking role that often unless we have injuries. Allen will replace him when he is match fit again.
Gerrard playing as the pivot was discussed by Rodgers yesterday. Gerrard is taking up that role. You can even find the Echo article on our official website.
ReplyDelete