Gerard Houllier - RIP :-(

18 Dec 2013

Anfield Heartbreak? 3 reasons why a new contract will not keep Suarez at Liverpool

With 22 goals/assists in 12 games, Liverpool striker Luis Suarez is laying waste to the Premier League this season, and after the Uruguayan's cynical want-away antics over the summer, it makes sense for the Reds to try and tie him down a new contract. LFC have reportedly opened talks on a possible new deal, but in my view, there is no way Suarez will stay past next summer.

According to The Guardian this week:

"Liverpool have opened talks with Luis Suárez's agent over a new contract at Anfield. Ian Ayre, flew to Barcelona on Tuesday for preliminary negotiations with Pere Guardiola, the agent involved in the striker's dispute with Liverpool over the terms in his existing deal when Arsenal tried to sign him in the summer".

Opening talks is a positive step, and Suarez may well sign a new deal, but it won't make any difference, for the following reasons:

Winning vs. Competing

Every elite footballer wants to play in football's top club competition, but simply qualifying for the Champions League is not enough. Suarez wants to WIN the competition, and I sincerely doubt he plans to hang around for the next 3-4 years (in the prime of his career) whilst Liverpool struggle to make progress in the competition. He will know that his chances of actually WINNING the CL (and regular league titles) will improve exponentially with a move to the likes of Real Madrid or Bayern Munich, and I truly believe he has his heart set on a move to one of those clubs.

Trophy Chances

On current form, it seems likely that Liverpool will qualify for the Champions League this season, but even if that happens, the chances of the club winning the competition at the first or second attempt are slim, especially with a manager who has zero European experience. Is Suarez going to gamble the best years of his career on the possibility of league/CL success with LFC? No chance. Steven Gerrard's loyalty to the Reds cost him a shedload of trophies over the years, and Suarez will be acutely aware of that.

LFC Favour

It's possible that Suarez sees this season as a final favour to Liverpool. In his mind, I suspect he sees getting the club into the Champions League as payback for the unfailing support provided to him by the club and its fans over the last two years. Earlier this week, Suarez again revealed his gratitude for the amazing support he's received from the fans, but that won't change the fact that when the season ends, he'll be gone. Of course, all of this is moot if Liverpool fail to qualify for the Champions League, in which case, Suarez will definitely leave.

Whatever happens, I personally won't begrudge Suarez a move this summer. I am one of his staunchest critics (with good reason!), but contrary to popular belief, I've also always acknowledged his footballing genius, and if he wants to leave then Liverpool should just let him go. If the club was in a stronger position (i.e. realistic ability to regularly win titles/CL) then it would be a different story, but Suarez is 26 years old now, and he only has a few more years at the very highest level to win the trophies his talent deserves.

It would be fantastic for the Liverpool if Suarez could achieve - without all the controversy (!) - his goals at Anfield, but, unfortunately, the club is at the very beginning of its renewed quest for trophies, and Suarez just doesn't have the time to hang around and wait for LFC to travel further along the road.

Many Reds fans will refuse to accept the possibility that Suarez will be gone in six more months, but deep down, I'm sure most will privately concede that the Uruguayan maestro has a greater chance of immediate (and consistent) success elsewhere.


53 comments:

  1. Gerrard's comments on Sky after the Tottenham game :

    "We're lucky to have him and we need to enjoy him while he's here
    because if he keeps performances up like this, I hate to say it, but the
    big guns are going to be sniffing which is what we don't want"

    How sad.

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  2. Exactly. Gerrard already knows he's gone, which is why he repeatedly says 'enjoy him whilst he's here'.

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  3. Jonathan Capozzola9:55 pm, December 18, 2013

    I agree he is probably on his way out but if Liverpool do get in to CL and show ambition to compete for more trophies by signing a few world class players you don't think they could convince him to stay? Or you just don't see them signing enough players to match his ambitions?

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  4. I don't think it matters who LFC sign to be honest. After 4 years in CL wilderness, the club is wa behind other teams when it comes to the possibility of regular success in the competition.

    Benitez won in his first year, but back then, LFC were regularly in Europe, and had experience on which to build. The chances of this team competing to win the CL and league titles consistently is slim at the moment (IMO), and will take another 2-3 years to get to that level. All of which is time Suarez doesn't have.

    If he goes to Real/Bayern etc, he'll have more chance of winning regular trophies.

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  5. Jonathan Capozzola10:05 pm, December 18, 2013

    I suppose you are probably right. I will be sad to see him go though, his new attitude on the pitch combined with his absolute world-class skills have been a joy to watch this year. It seems that he genuinely likes his teammates and they like him - I love their celebration after Flanno's goal.

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  6. I think he'll sign purely based on his contract release clause. I think he truly understands his value now and can repay the club for his misdemeanors by signing a contract and getting the maximum out his move away from the club, and helping the club bring in new qaulity players to sustain success that he seems to be kicking starting once again. I think the move away was pushed by his agent. pere gaurdiola seems really slimely to me.

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  7. He's not gone yet, and probably won't re-commit to LFC (if he going too) until after the world cup. Lets see what LFC achieve for this season first, and see what ambition our owners show, should the most currently likely thing of qualifying for the C/L happen,

    I'm glad that some talking is going on (he can maybe make some demands on likely players to acquire for 2014/15, CR joined real madrid and has currently only won copa del & one title ?? i think (teamwise), plenty individual though. So not totally rosy elsewhere.

    I'm hoping he will stay and help LFC become an Euro Elite again, our progress will have to move rapidly though, good reasons to leave can also turn into good reasons to stay ??, We could do with some top rate experience to compliment our young and hungry policy.

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  8. Font of all wisdom on this one, aren't you?
    You were rock solid certain that he was going to leave last summer. Believe it or not, it's still in the hands of the owners until 2016 and if they decide to take the sort of attitude that Ferguson has displayed in the past, he could be made to see his contract out.
    You may say it's unlikely, due to squad morale issues and financial reasons, but I believe that FSG showed us last summer that contracts can actually be worth the paper they're written on, by playing hardball.
    But, let's hope it doesn't come to that. I thought you were actually starting to come to love Suárez. In fact, credit to you, you called it right that Rodgers would make him captain and it didn't affect his game.
    He could sign a new contract now, with significantly improved basic wage, but not at R.Madrid/Man City levels, heavily incentivized, particularly on terms of goals and assists, complete with very high (£100M+) release clause and a failure to qualify for Champions League clause.
    I believe, that if we sign one or two first team players (not squad players) and maybe one or two emerging talents already good enough for bench duty, this January and finish top four, we have every reason to believe that he will willingly give us at least another season after this one.

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  9. i agree with you in that

    unless we tried to sign big names ... especially in winter window

    am not saying he is bigger than the club .. but he could deliver us to the next stage where we want to be
    suarez is a gem and you could not find a players in his caliber every season
    if we could make suarez happy in terms of competing and winning ... we will be happier than him because that what we want
    imagine if when van persie was in arsenal and they signed ozil .. he will stay and will compete
    we must sign players that help us compete and win something and help us keeping suarez

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  10. There is a high probability(99.9%) he'll leave in the summer if Liverpool don't qualify for CL, however if they do finish in a top 4 spot and he doesn't sign a new contract, I don't see why he would be alowed to leave.
    At that time his current contract will still run for an other 2 seasons and Liverpool will not be forced to sell due to a drop in value. If the club keeps him for an other season his value won't drop significantly until after the 15/16 summer transfer window, we've paid the full price for Sakho when his contract had only one year left on it. Van Persie was sold to Man U for 24m £ with one year remaining and he was 29 at that time.
    Even if his contract runs down with only 6 months left, he'll still command a fee similar to the one he was purchased for.
    I don't see any logic in letting him leave in the summer unless LFC don't qualify for CL.

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  11. Heh, you can't right all that and then in your second comment and say you might be wrong and he could sign a new contract tomorrow.


    Everything you wrote is perfectly reasonable, logical and makes sense. Football is rarely any of these things. Here's hoping.... I've watched Liverpool a long time. I've seen some great players. I can't remember enjoying watching a player like I am with Suarez this season

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  12. Please drop the snide tone. This post simply represents my opinion, nothing more, nothing less.

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  13. I've been saying that he will leave *sooner* rather than later, and I believe he will. In the summer - which, incidentally, was only four months ago - Suarez pushed hard to leave, which shows his state of mind. Whether he leaves in January or the summer, my point has always been that he won't be at LFC for the long-term.

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  14. All depends on what the contract entails really. If the money is good (same or more that he would get anywhere else), there is a proper release clause if CL is not met, then there would be a good chance he'd sign.

    Right now his wages are a steal, even last season they were - even after meeting incentives.

    Basically, IMO, like you say, it amounts to being able to challenge for the top trophies. If this year we win the title or come second, it's very likely he'll stay. 3rd or 4th, still a good chance. 5th or less - no chance.

    But staying entails fighting to win the league and champions league next year, which requires a heavy investment from the club. I wouldn't discount this possibility - but it means having a big name replacing SG as a starter, as well as a couple long standing players like Johnson, Lucas, etc.

    I think he'd stay at least a couple of years if CL were met - I think he's got a good 10 years left in his tank, he's sorta like Di Natale in this sense.

    Would be interesting to see just how many goals he could score in spain or germany though, as it is he's on track to blow the PL scoring record out of the water, and there's piles more goals to be had in La Liga and Germany.

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  15. You guys are the worst, most depressing "lfc" fans, there is no point worrying bout somen that may not even happen. This article is shameful, we need to have faith in our club and players, not find reasons to cause disharmony and discontent. We 2nd in the league and crap like this published. Just enjoy the moment. Shameful article. YNWA!

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  16. Personally I do not care one bit wheter he stays or not, I'm an Lfc supporter, not Suarez fc and i've seen players come and go ever since. No tears will be shed or regrets to be had when the time comes.
    At the moment he's performing well and as long as that continues, the club shoud take advantage of the situation and keep him as long as possible, even if his value drops a bit.
    Real, Barca and some other Spanish club are currently under investigation by the EC for possible illegal state aid and if found guilty I don't see how they'll be able to afford him or any other high profile footballer, as Uefa
    begins to enforce its Financial Fair Play rules.
    I've posted a link here on the subject before but it was deleted.

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  17. suarez has become priceless. as good as CR7 and better than messi. hes scoring almost every chance he has. free-kicks, headers, long-range, left, right and very consistently as well. he may not have proved this in the CL, but he has in the World Cup and Copa America, competitions Messi fails to turnup to, even in his home nation. tbh i would honestly say Suarez is worth £120M. im not crazy when i say that. he is too unique, his desire, everything about him. as a footballer he is absolutely priceless. He is the saviour of LFC.


    we cannot afford to lose him. not at any price. He is much too effective. I believe LFC can win the league with a player as good as Luis Suarez. John Henry and BR probably both believe that as well. He is the best player in England and if he joins any of the Elites in Bayern, RM or Barca he will become the best player in the world. knowing that, we cant afford to lose him. if we have to smash our wage bill by offering 300k a week to the best player in Europe right now and 2nd best overall, why not? we must build a team around Luis. he has 17 goals and 8 assists in 11 PL games. Unbelieveable. thats actually a contrubution of 25 goals in 11 games. if you told that to him he wouldnt think anything of it. it normal for suarez to score. he probably believes he can get 50 goals a season. only few players have that mentality. CR7 and Lionel Messi he strives as a lone forward. much too good. if CR7 and Messi are on those wages Suarez should be too. Sturridge is good but he wont fire us to CL on his own. Suarez will. if Suarez leaves the World Record must be broken or its pointless. he will make any team win a CL and a price tag wont affect him. not one bit

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  18. well if we win the league it would be the equivalent of maradona taking Napoli to the title. Could Suarez do that with Liverpool this season ? I have to say maybe, now that would be a fantastic leaving present.

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  19. I completely agree with everything you say Jaimie. No one can begrudge him a move at the end of the season. A very well articulated piece ;)

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  20. Almost a year back, when speculation was at it's prime, I presumed which I reiterate again - Luis Suarez's stay at LFC is entirely dependent on how ambitious FSG are. After the 2nd leg of Zenith match, I saw an absoltue dejected face of an angry genius, for that night he gave his everything & did possibly what a single player can do in a match, yet came short. He was dejected, because he knew that was the maximum capability of the team. I got my message that night - Luis might stay (which he did) in July, but come Jan, unless LFC is in a prosperous position & FSG isn't ambitious enough, he 'll leave.

    LFC is indeed in a very good position, whatever happens at Chelsea & MCity, on 21st, we can again be at top of league, don't know when last we ere at that league position after as late as 17 matches. Now, it entirely depending on FSG - how much they are determined in keeping Luis (from his personal benefits) & ambitious to keep LFC among top 2.

    We are a very good starting XI, baring few positions, but with hardly any depth. Once the festive season starts & in freezing temperature congested schedule hits, we might (I am afraid, we 'll) break down, because you can't keep pressing with just about 12-13 players playing twice a week (& this being a WC year, no International Manager 'll give respite to their top players). What Luis want is a team to fight it out, which we are definitely (nobody in EPL 'll be able to beat Spurs 0-5 at WHL), but for individual matches, not for the remaining 20 or so EPL fixtures (& FA Cup ties).

    I am sure, Luis 'll be with us till 28th or 29th Jan & by that time unless we bring 2/3 really good players straight for starting XI, he 'll hand over a transfer request this time. Somehow, just somehow if FSG manages to bring 4/5 top players (a backup RB, a starting LB, a starting DM, a top quality winger/forward & a quality backup AM), I bet my house, Luis 'll sign the contract papers laughing on 31st. He loves this club & might stay here till his early 30s, if again, FSG ARE AMBITIOUS ENOUGH.

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  21. Jamie, all good points and indisputable from a rational point of view. We'll know soon enough. That's why Ayre flew to Spain. FSG needs to know what LS is going to do. If he doesn't commit to insane amounts of money from FSG to stay, he won't stay at the summer. Bless his heart. He is doing everything he possibly can to put Liverpool into the CL next year. For him it is the honorable thing to do. If he doesn't sign, then we need to move for another striker...it would be bad business not to. Hence Mitroglou.
    I also agree with the objective analysis of the state of La Liga and RM finances. As for Bayern, they may decide they're already good enough and don't need Suarez...this is a distinct possibility since they will already get Lewandowsky and they are already well clear of all challengers in the Bundesliga. Why else is Lewandowsky antsy about moving in January...and not waiting till the summer when Suarez will be available?
    Let's talk about the the emotional for a bit.
    As to Gerrard missing out on trophies let me just say this. I'm 58. I flew USAF fighter jets all over the world...6 years over Spain and Germany in the 80's before the wall fell. When I get together with my buds as we do from time to time...you know what we never talk about?...boring stories of specific missions or when we were champions of the sky...which we were...always. We laugh about the great times we had together for the precious time we were together. I don't think Gerrard, Carragher, Owen and whoever else will lose sleep at night over what might have been. They'll smile and laugh about what was. That's the intangible that SG needs to put in LS's ear. Trophies gather dust...friends share memories. There's no contest.
    Another intangible is what it would do for LS self-image if he were the keystone that took Liverpool back to legendary status. Does he want to be number X in a line of dudes to play for RM or does he want to be forever enshrined among the giants of Liverpool football? What does his wife think about living in Liverpool? This is not unimportant. 95,000 fans gathered at the MCG to watch Liverpool play Melbourne in a tune-up game. About 92,000 of them belted out YNWA at the top of their lungs...Youtube it..it will bring a tear to your eye. (I'll bet most of you already have...and somebody ought to send that Youtube to FSG so they can see 95,000 fans halfway around the world all wearing Liverpool shirts bought on line). Does anybody sing about RM in the far flung corners of the world? Don't bother I already know the answer.
    If Suarez does decide to go, I'll be the first to stand up and thank him for services rendered and shake my head in awe at the things he did in a Liverpool shirt. But it's more than just money and goofy looking statues that should make him go or stay. He has already achieved a mythical status that won't age out.

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  22. Patience is a virtue... And positive thinking too...

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  23. He saw no hope for improvement...now he does.

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  24. Maybe SG already knows. Hence his comment. However, SG probably played a major part in his decision to quit whining and stay here for the year. Maybe he can work his magic again.

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  25. Agree. if suarez stays, it will only increase the drive the players have even more, because of inflated belief. While being in the champions league too, top players considering liverpool will be attracted to that aggressive and positive energy that would be permeating the club.

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  26. Suarez signs a new bumper contract now, have a 100mil release clause in it. If we qualify for CL or not at end of season he may leave or stay. If he stays we are less 100mil. He goes we are 100mil richer. Whichever way you look at it it is a good deal. Meanwhile he doubles his wages. Why not:?
    But Suarez must beware that top strikers who left LFC at age 27 never recaptured their form elsewhere. Strange Hoodoo if you must.

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  27. crazy talk here and maybe i should wait till after the next 3 games but........................... i think this team has a REAL shot at the PL title this year, especially with a solid transfer window similar to last years January. I honestly think that Luis wants to stay here and become a kop legend and he'll have no problem signing a new contract at the end of the year if we lift that trophy. and these two years could be Gerrards last real solid ones, in terms of having a major impact in the team, and i think he realizes that where they are now on the table and with how tight the league will be this year compared to years past hes gunna rally the team to make a push for the title from here on out. but hey maybe im just being to optimistic, lets hope not

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  28. Why are you such a hater? It really is annoying getting linked to this site through NewsNow...

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  29. I don't know about cashing in. If we qualify for CL we will need all our defenders. Even more importantly we need his character and mentality to persevere being benched and fight for a place on the starting squad. You can't coach that and he obviously has the skills.

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  30. 17 goals in ten matches, who else will give us that? No chance we'll let him go. As for winning the CL, I think we proved in 2005 that it is very much possible to win it out of the blue. We never looked like winning it, throughout the entire competition. As for better chances with Real Madrid, their last win came 3 years before ours. The league title in England? We stand as good a chance as anyone this season to win it. All that said, I agree that Suarez will want to move on because he wants to play in Spain. I'm just not 100% positive it will be next summer. When he does though, there better be no Iago Aspas type signings to replace him.

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  31. Agger has been for many years hailed as one of the top defenders in the world. Barca were after him, City were after him and now Napoli. That should say it all. agger is not having the best season, but we need only look at skrtel to realise that even when form dips, talent remains. We need competition throughout the squad. Agger has been one of the most loyal servants over the years and has never pushed for a move. The club must repay that during this difficult period. I say, keep him until he says he requests to go.

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  32. If we get top 4 or better he stays!!!!

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  33. Why would he say no to £200,000 a week with an agreed clause inserted???, he would be mad. He will stay as long as we carry on improving, no doubt in my mind!!!

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  34. It's hard to argue that he won't leave next summer, the only way I see him stay is if we come very close to winning the league, I doubt this will happen, but stranger things have happened.

    Like SG says, I'll enjoy him while here is here and hope he stays, as long as when he goes we get a large fee for him and get solid replacements.

    If we make it to January in the top 4 then I think we have a great chance to get CL. Football next year

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  35. Suarez is a very unpredictable character. We will only know if he stays or goes at the end of the season. If he does sign a new contract then for sure there will be clauses that allow him to leave but at the right price. He is currently the best player in the world and if he does want to leave then FSG will not let him go for cheap.


    I was pissed with him when he was whoring himself in the last transfer window but he has redeemed himself by the way he has behaved since then and repaid us with some sublime performances. His attitude to win is admirable and long may he continue to score goals in a red shirt.


    Please stay Luis...

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  36. He's actually contracted to 2018

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  37. My mistake and even better. :-)

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  38. What has he got to lose from signing. If Madrid want him now its 100m so the new contract will probably have a clause in it anyway stating this. Although history would say otherwise, maybe he is happy with us now. Also, if we get CL, then we will be step up a notch in our transfer dealings as we will attract better players, add to that the Suarez attraction, we could have a team that is very capable of giving the CL a go. I know what you mean about Madrid and Bayern, but we do have one thing on our side, the PL is the most entertaining and watched league in the world. If he goes to Madrid, its just a 2 horse race, as in Germany. I really hope he stays as he is a genius. Anyone can change, even Suarez, although he has a long way to go..

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  39. Dont see the need to sell anybody in the January window, we should be adding 1 or possible 2 players to the current squad rather than seeing any leave.

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  40. No he isn't, he isstill very catious though..

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  41. No he isn't, he is still very catious though....

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  42. originalchan, chocolatechib,vyas..
    Sometimes it was more interesting reading what they posted than what Jaimie wrote, or writing your own comment..

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  43. So sell Agger and consider selling Skrtel? Look at Spurs right now. They have four experienced CB's and are having to use Capoue as a CB. Look at Arsenal this season having issues with CB's as they only have three. With Toure aging and never seen as long term Agger having a bad history record and struggling for form I don't see any problem keeping them all in the team right now. If Sakho's form drops we could bring Agger back in, same with Skrtel and Toure. I would much prefer having a player having a bit of a whinge to the press then need him and not have him.This is a non issue that Jaimie feels strongly about. I personally think that to sell one of Agger and Sktel or both then we still need to replace. If Ilori gets a loan and does well then perhaps Agger in the summer but if he is still a couple of seasons away then we will probably lose (or get rid of) Toure anyway so there is no problem. Four CB's should be a minimum amount a team with our aspirations should have we only have to look at opponents to see why.

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  44. The same Carr who writes on TIA? He is sticking to hating Allen at the mo.

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  45. If so the summer makes much more sense then Jan don't you think?

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  46. yeah its the same one ... still hes a nice guy

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  47. A bit negative but not a bad guy by any means. It's the one mentality I don't get in some fans. I understand the ultra optimistic or even(to a lesser extent) the hater of other teams but I don't get why some people almost seem to look for the negatives. He seems a good fella I just don't get him.

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  48. Yep, that would be my preference. Play out the rest of the season, get a better feel for Sakho, hopefully we'll see some of Ilori (even if it is for another side) and then make an informed decision in the summer.

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  49. True. He was always a blag Vidic. He seemed strong and commanding, but as you say, he never really went and snuffed out danger proactively. He has been doing that a bit more lately. Maybe it is just a confidence thing. I think, again, as you say, having Sakho alongside him suits him.

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  50. Every "great" team has atleast 3 good experienced CB. This is part of the reason why our team is doing so well this season. Chelsea have Cahil, Terry, and Luis. Arsenal have Koscielny Mertersaker and Vermaelin, and City have kompany Nastatic Lescott and Demichelis. United are struggling missing two of there main CB and same with Tottenham. No way hes going on loan. Thats just stupid talk.

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