23 Oct 2012

Fortress Anfield? You're having a laugh! Spurs hero writes off LFC's CL chances...

On Saturday, Liverpool grabbed their first Premier League home win of the season against Reading, and although the club kept a second home clean sheet in a row, former Tottenham Hotspur boss Harry Redknapp feels that the Reds are still a long way from recreating Fortress Anfield.

Analysing Liverpool's victory on Match of the Day, Redknapp hailed 'outstanding' duo Luis Suarez and Raheem Sterling, and insisted that Brendan Rodgers' team have enough talent to climb up the table, but he also admitted that Anfield no longer holds any fear for visiting teams. He argued:

"Liverpool are not the force they were, that’s for sure. You look at their team sheet today – you wouldn’t go to Anfield and quake.

"You used to go their and be pleased if you got a corner. Now, you look at the team and feel if you go there, you’ve got a chance.

"I can see them finishing 5th, 6th or 7th. They’ll get it together, but it takes time"


It's not only Redknapp who feels this way about Liverpool's Premier League chances. In an interview with the BBC, last week, Reds hero Gary McAllister also dismissed his old club's chances of finishing in the top four:

"Looking at the form of Spurs, Newcastle and Everton, it’s going to be tough for Liverpool to be in the top 6 or 7, never mind the CL spots".

To be fair, Liverpool's Premier League results this season add weight to the viewds of McAllister and Redknapp: based on results alone, there's no way the club will make it into the top four. Yes, performances are good, but playing well doesn't win points.

* Liverpool have 9 points from 8 games so far, which is an average of 1.1 points per game.

* If this points rate continues (it won't, but just as a hypothetical), then the club will end up with 42 points for the season, which is relegation form (!)

* As I highlighted in a post recently, Liverpool are conceding 1.7 goals per league game at the moment, which puts the club on course to concede 60 league goals for the season.

As for whether the club can finish in the top four this season:

* Average points achieved by 4th placed teams over last 8 years = 68
* Average points per game needed: 1.7
* League points left to play for: 90
* League points LFC need: 59

With a per-game average of just 1.1 points this season, Liverpool are way off the pace right now. At this stage, the Reds need to average 1.9 points per game for the rest of the season to make 4th.

Ultimately, I think Redknapp/McAllister are probably right: 5th, 6th or 7th is realistically Liverpool's level this season, and to be honest, I'll be happy with that.

Jaimie Kanwar


47 comments:

  1. Like I said in your other article...

    9th best finish.

    12th probable finish.

    Like you jamie am fine with either finish.

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  2. Were building something special, Raheem will keep improving, Suso will get stronger with time, the forgotten youngsters like Morgan and Coady aren't far away. On top of this, Brad Jones has proved he can come in and do a job between the sticks for us (before I was concerned of his ability to fill in for Pep, but I have to say he's probably playing better than Pep at this moment in time) We will definitely bring in strikers in Jan, I don't think the owners will disappoint and if they do then we know what intentions they have.

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  3. A very grim reality. But support we will to the end.

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  4. yeh and did you hear the way he purred over spurs great team even tough they were pretty poor. we can only get better and when teams look at spurs and arsenal at the weekend they wont be quaking i their boots. its gona be an interesting season and january could be big. if liverpool get the wise buys in january whos to say we cant push on. the teams i the race for fourth arent world beaters.

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  5. Your headline is not accurate. I saw MOD and at know time did Redknapp say "You're Having a Laugh!" The implication of the headline is that Redknapp was mocking Liverpool's chances of Champions League football. He wasn't, Redknapp just gave a fair assessment of where Liverpool are at the moment.

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  6. If you analyse the games, if Suarez is shifted wide and a goal scoring bought in January then its pretty obvious that if the goal scorer can finish 50% of his chances then we will have a points average at least 2 points per game. We control most games and create a obscene about of chances compared to the opposition. It's just a matter of adding 1 or 2 slightly more experienced goal scorers and then the whole team can develop into a killing off machine. Lets see if the owners will open their wallet come January..

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  7. It should be remembered that we did have a tough start to the season, I know that doesn't excuse being battered by West Brom. It kinda reminds me of Arsenal last season and they made a great surge after Christmas.

    As a matter of interest Jamie could you find out what the table looked like this time last season to compare to how it ended up?

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  8. Liverpool will finish fourth no question in my mind! we are like a little snow ball at the moment, bits falling of every now and then but getting harder and stronger by the minute.. soon we will be ice and on a roll well be so big and strong and having unbelievable runs.. worry not (next season we will be in the champions league..Y.N.W.A.

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  9. Grim stats however all is far from lost, A proven goalscorer could well make the difference come January, We all see the gapping hole in the striker department and we are creating chances aplenty so with a "proven" not a "one for the future" goalscorer on the books its not inconceivable to attain a top 4 finish. if we knock them in early other teams will crumble. Lets be honest we really had a stinker of a start to our season with the fixtures and came out average considering it was the start of BR's new project. Chin up gentlemen the glass is half full.

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  10. I still have a positive attitude towards this season. Yes we haven't started all that well in terms of results, but we have played good football, and are improving with each game. We just need a some more consistancy, and probably some more confidence.
    A win at Everton this weekend, would really help this, and could kick start a good run. But a draw would still be a decent result.

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  11. Hi Alanable - I've attached an image the league table after 9 games last season.

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  12. if we buy 2 or 3 quality players in january a goal poacher 1st i think we will have a very strong squad. were only 5 points off 4th and i think were jut starting to get going.we play better football than spurs and i think everton will fall off as always.ynwa

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  13. Redknapp refers to Newcastle, Spurs & Everton's form & deduces from that, that LFC will struggle to make 6th or 7th. For the record, Newcastle is currently 1 point ahead of LFC & Spurs 5 points ahead of LFC. I personally don't think thats a massive or insurmountable difference considering only 8 matches have been played!

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  14. I'll settle for 8th place. Yes, we may get stronger as the season goes on but that could go for other teams too. Spurs were without a lot of first XI players against Chelsea (Dembele, Ekotto, Kaboul, Bale, Parker, admittedly some are long term absences). Arsenal's have a fair few new players who could get better (though tbh, I got my doubts about their attack). Newcastle have had a slow start but they are too good a side not to be battling for a top 7 place. Everton usually come strong in the second half of the season. Ifs and buts, I know, admittedly. Nothing is certain. We could bring in a striker in Jan but who knows whether he'll be a instant success or take a while to bed in, so we can't pin too much of our hopes on that to somehow improve our performances. Yep, some of the young players are doing well but don't bank on them keeping up these performances, as it is norm for young players to suffer from inconsistent form as seen with Arsenal many a time in the past.

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  15. So if we win against Everton on Sunday we will only be 1 point worse than Arsenal were at the same stage last year! They finished 3rd that year so with some decent buys in January anything is possible!

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  16. He said the obvious. Everyone agrees to what he says. I don't think any fan is deluded enough to think we will be in Euros next season let alone top four. Our owners are here for long term and even if they want to make money by selling club, they will do so by running it effectively, profitably and successfully and this will take time. There is a quick fix (spend 100mn on salary and transfers) but they wont risk it after last season and who can blame them? Suppose if you are the owner, will you lend the same money again? I don't think so. But, I do think if BR performs above expectations this season and if 90% of his transfers are successful, they will support him with hefty transfer kitty next season. Till then get behind the club.....Y.N.W.A

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  17. Stay of the drugs mate fourth my ass

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  18. Dreamland. Meanwhile, back on earth...............

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  19. yep, but the gap will grow exponentially

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  20. Why so negative , we are six points off the team in fourth who have had there best start in donkey's and we've had our worst start in donkey's . If we beat them this weekend we would be three points off them , I' m not saying we will beat them , but it would not be a big surprise if we did , of course we can finish top four , even if we lost this weekend

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  21. Cheers! Perhaps most interesting is the fact that Wigan are out of relegation. Martinez for president!
    I think it is fair to say that the top 3 will be Chelsea, Manure and Citeh(not necessarily in that order) I would probably give 4th to Arsenal, mainly because of Wenger. So that leaves 5th up for grabs. Everton should take it but I think they will slip up as the season goes on. I'm still not convinced with Villas Boas so I'm gonna place us in 5th. West Brom actually look a threat this season but I hope they falter...At least more so than we do!

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  22. Spur's Hero. Redknapp, you must be out of your mind. He was sacked, because he couldn't be trusted. Bank account in name of dog. Yeah sure - hero.

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  23. we can take 60 points. defence is looking better and better{hopefully jones will impress vs anzi and start vs everton}. johnson is also more reliable in defence than on the start. we got 2 great cb with coates, wisdom and kelly ready to step in and fill the gaps{dont forget robinson and flano}, and maybe we can get some good performances out of enrique. in gerrard we must believe, jonjo already is a great player and will get even better, we have exceptional sahin for the year, allen and leiva are terrific and i still believe downing can add some quality from time to time{ if there is a tall guy in the box, like shelvy vs udinese}. and with suso, sterling, suarez, all we need is llorente or huntelaar{even babell} to make it happen. cl, here we come...

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  24. 12? you are insane...

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  25. I'd be perfectly happy with 5th this season. We need to be patient and build. I have faith in Rodgers and given time I feel like he can get us back into the top 4. The next two years I can certainly see us building up. As long as we at least challenge for CL spots I'm happy. His 3rd year will be the test though. Thats the season I see us really fighting for a high place finish.

    In the meantime we definitely need a goal scorer. Suarez is far too inconsistent. He could have scored 4 against Reading. Playing out wide he is more effective. Exciting times though. Solid cup runs and a Europa League finish would be a good season in my eyes.

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  26. Agreed - we need to at least challenge for a CL spot - if we end up 5th or 6th, so be it but at least we can show we can fight for it and this will help attract players. Our young kids will only improve the more they play, so if we are going to bring in some signings in January we have to stay in the cup competitions where these kids will get first team matches.

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  27. and after that we can beat newcastle home, and arsenal is playing cl, qpr and man u... we are close.

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  28. Good analysis jaimie. Being realistic is always good but don't get it to your head( the manager,players). 3 points all matters.

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  29. how can anyone suggest coming 8th is fine!!! oh my good god, time needed, i am sorry but we need to be beating the likes of everton, newcastle in the league. if we finish as low as 12th that is utter failiure. we employed BR to do better not the same and to be fair chelsea have a manger who has turned the club around in a year and look at steve clarke at west brom, over performing, why cant i ask BR to just perform with the current squad and we should be challenging for 4th.

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  30. You are clearly deluded. Spurs have a better squad than the combined best players of both the Liverpool clubs, and will finish higher than both. Liverpool will be lucky to finish in the top 10.

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  31. I like supporters that support their teams this is admirable. You though are clearly thick. Spurs play better football than Liverpool and have done for the last 5 seasons. Take off the rose tinted glasses. I thought it was the blues that were supposed to be bitter?

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  32. Finally a realist on this page. Liverpool are miles behind the top 5 sides in the league. They finished 8th last season most other teams have strengthened and they haven't. Going into a season with 1 striker is bad enough even if it is a player like RVP. Going in with one that scores a goal per 8 or 9 chances is suicide.

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  33. Sixty points last season would've placed you 7th. You won't finish that high this year. CL here you come? This site is funny as hell I think I will bookmark it.

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  34. A manager can only work with what he has. Liverpool's squad is crap, it is full of 2nd rate players. BR is called BR if you wanted a miracle worker (which you would need to come anywhere near the top 6) then maybe you should've looked for a coach named Jesus Christ!

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  35. 60 more. read the article, he said we need 59 more. and please bookmark it, and remember me in may...

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  36. Its actually quite obvious. If you see the front 3 of Chelsea, Spurs, Man Utd, Man City, Arsenal, Newcastle...heck even Everton and compare it with LFC front 3 which consists of 17 and 18 year old...we got to be deluded about European chances.

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  37. Your post clearly says 60 points. I read the article I was directly replying to your post. You honestly think you will get 69 points? What is that based on? You haven't got 69 points since 08/09 (when you came 2nd with 86). I will laugh at you in May as the deluded fan you clearly are.

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  38. I have a perfectly good life. It is you that needs one despite all the FACTS you still think you will come 4th. Yet when asked how you come to that conclusion you clearly have no reasons.

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  39. yeah great life. that is why you posted 6 comments on oponents site... go watch braga or shakter. or get a life...

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  40. Long_black - your views are welcome, but please don't belittle other posters (i.e. calling them 'deluded') - Please remain civil. Thanks.

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  41. I'll have a pint of whatever you are on

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  42. Well it could be argued that last season Chelsea had a better team than Tottenham and Newcastle and finished behind both. I am just trying to remain optimistic. I love how people on this site use the word deluded to fry anyone they don't agree with.

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  43. reina, agger, skrtel, johnson, gerrard, lucas, allen, surez, stirling and suso would all get in the everton team, yet we are content to come behind them??

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  44. So by your reckoning Spurs were playing better than Liverpool 4 years ago when they were threatened by relegation while Liverpool was finishing second?

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  45. No doubt an Everton fan would likewise say that Howard, Baines, Jagielka, Distin, Fellaini, Pienaar, Coleman, Mirallas, Jelavic etc would all get into our side

    Fwiw I honestly believe that 'merely' adding a quality striker and right-sided forward to our team, would see us having amongst the best squads in the Premiership again

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