10 Sept 2009

The 'England effect': How does Liverpool FC (historically) perform after International breaks?

What is Liverpool's form like in domestic games that immediately follow international breaks?  To find out, I've examined all of the club's post-international games since the 2005-06 season. The results, surprisingly, are rather encouraging, which is great news ahead of the must-win Burnley game this weekend.

Since the 2005-06 season, 24 England games that have taken place during the league season time:

England games - Blue
Liverpool games - Red

Opponent
Date
Result
Croatia
9-Sep-09
W
Slovenia
6-Sep-09
W
Burnley (H)
12-Sep-09
?
Holland
12-Aug-09
D
Spurs (A)
16-Aug-09
L
Ukraine
1-Apr-09
W
Slovakia
28-Mar-09
W
Fulham (A)
4-Apr-09
W
Spain
11-Feb-09
L
Man City (H)
22-Feb-09
D
Germany
19-Nov-08
W
Fulham (H)
22-Nov-08
D
Belarus
15-Oct-08
W
Kazakhstan
11-Oct-08
W
Wigan (H)
18-Oct-08
W
Croatia
10-Sep-08
W
Andorra
6-Sep-08
W
Man United (H)
13-Sep-08
W
Czech Republic
20-Aug-08
D
Middlesbrough (H)
23-Aug-08
W
France
26-Mar-08
L
Everton (H)
30-Mar-08
W
Switzerland
6-Feb-08
W
Chelsea (A)
10-Feb-08
D
Croatia
21-Nov-07
L
Austria
16-Nov-07
W
Newcastle (A)
24-Aug-07
W
Russia
17-Oct-07
L
Estonia
13-Oct-07
W
Everton (A)
20-Oct-07
W
Russia
12-Sep-07
W
Israel
8-Sep-07
W
Portsmouth (A)
15/09
D
Germany
22-Aug-07
L
Sunderland (A)
25/08
W
Andorra
28-Mar-07
W
Israel
24-Mar-07
D
Arsenal (H)
31-Mar-07
W
Spain
7-Feb-07
L
Newcastle (A)
10-Feb-07
L
Holland
15-Nov-06
D
Middlesbrough (A)
18-Nov-06
D
Croatia
11-Oct-06
L
Macedonia
7-Oct-06
D
Blackburn (H)
14-Oct-06
D
Macedonia
6-Sep-06
W
Andorra
2-Sep-06
W
Everton (A)
9-Sep-06
L
Greece
16-Aug-06
W
Sheffield United (A)
19-Aug-06
D
Uruguay
1-Mar-06
W
Charlton (H)
4-Mar-06
D
Argentina
13-Nov-05
W
Portsmouth (H)
19-Nov-05
W
Poland
12-Oct-05
W
Austria
8-Oct-05
W
Blackburn (H)
15-Oct-05
W
Northern Ireland
7-Sep-05
L
Wales
3-Sep-05
W
Spurs (A)
10-Sep-05
D
Denmark
17-Aug-05
L
Sunderland (H)
20-Aug-05
W

TOTALS

Post-International games - 24
Wins - 12
Draws - 9
Defeats - 3
Home games: - 12
Away games - 12

ANALYSIS

* 50% of games won after International breaks (IB)
* 37% of games drawn
* 13% of games lost
* Overall: Failure to win in 50% of games after IB

* HOME: 8 wins/4 draws
* AWAY: 5 draws/3 defeats/4 wins

* Last 5 games after IB (H + A): LWDDW
* Last 5 HOME games after IB: DWWWW

As you can see, Liverpool tends to do pretty well in home games after international breaks but not so good in away games.   Recent history is also encouraging when it comes to home games - 4 wins and a draw in the last 5 means that the club's recent form after international breaks has barely been affected.

Having said that, since the 2005/06 season, 4 of the 9 draws after International breaks have come at home,  against Charlton, Blackburn, Fulham and Man City, games the club should (arguably) win.

Based upon these figures, I think we can be reasonably confident of beating Burnley on Saturday as it seems Liverpool rarely suffer a post-international break hangover.

We shall see!


8 comments:

  1. why would you go to so much trouble, and then do your survey for england games? considering we've never had the biggest of contingents in the english squad anyway? 2 players played with england how is that going to effect our 11 against burnley??

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  2. Clearly, I had to choose one team as a point of reference otherwise I'd have to display all the results of every international team for which Liverpool players are represented.

    And it goes without saying that every time England have an international match, other national teams do on the same day.  Or at least I thought it went without saying ;-)

    Example: England played Croatia yesterday; Spain also played on the same night.  Argetina also played during the break so it all works out the same in the end.

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  3. To be honest, I thought it would be the othr way round, with us being worse after internationals, so i'm surprised.  Pretty good record actually.  There are quite a lots odf draws though overall, so this saurday's game is not a foregone conlusionn at all/

    We'll still hammer burnley though :-)

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  4. Yes BUT!!!
    Gerrard scored 2. How many of the above international games did Gerrard score 2 goals in?

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  5. Why is Gerrard scoring relevant?

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  6. Because he plays for Liverpool.
    check http://www.liverpoolfc.tv/ for a full list of players.

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  7. Gerrard plays for Liverpool?

    Thanks for clearing that up :)

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  8. Gerrard scoring is most relevant due to the fact that he has been 'used' by previous england managers due to his versatility...now all england players are being treated as equals and gerrard and lampard are obviously being treated as key midfielders. fair point about the stats being skewed due to the amount of nationalities, expectations, performances, likelihood of progression and the contexts of various matches...are lucas and mascher coming back from altitude? how will they both react to their respective national situations? will stevie be brimming this time? how will the dutch, spanish and italian fair? far too many variables for these stats to be taken with any seriousness...sorry unless you can account for all these and show previous examples this is just a waste of energy...studies should be in depth or not at all...'ppl can produce to stats to back up any argument, forfty per cent of all people know that' (h simpson)

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