30 Mar 2008

Liverpool vs Arsenal - Who has the edge going into this week's trilogy?

Liverpool have played Arsenal 26 times over the last ten years, but with three crucial, season defining games on the horizon, which team has the best record and, by extension, the statistically better chance of emerging victorious?

Below is a table detailing every Liverpool-Arsenal game over the last ten years:













































































































































































































30.11.1997


W


1 - 0


Highbury


Premier League


06.05.1998


W


4 - 0


Anfield


Premier League


22.08.1998


D


0 - 0


Anfield


Premier League


09.01.1999


D


0 - 0


Highbury


Premier League






13.02.2000


W


1 - 0


Highbury


Premier League


21.08.2000


L


0 - 2


Highbury


Premier League


23.12.2000


W


4 - 0


Anfield


Premier League


12.05.2001


W


2 - 1


Millennium St.


FA Cup Final


23.12.2001


L


1 - 2


Anfield


Premier League


13.01.2002


D


1 - 1


Highbury


Premier League


27.01.2002


L


0 - 1


Highbury


FA Cup 4th round


11.08.2002


L


0 - 1


Millennium St.


Charity Shield


29.12.2002


D


1 - 1


Highbury


Premier League


29.01.2003


D


2 - 2


Anfield


Premier League


04.10.2003


L


1 - 2


Anfield


Premier League


09.04.2004


L


2 - 4


Highbury


Premier League


28.11.2004


W


2 - 1


Anfield


Premier League


08.05.2005


L


1 - 3


Highbury


Premier League


14.02.2006


W


1 - 0


Anfield


Premier League


12.03.2006


L


1 - 2


Highbury


Premier League


12.11.2006


L


0 - 3


Emirates


Premier League


06.01.2007


L


1 - 3


Anfield


FA Cup 3rd round


09.01.2007


L


3 - 6


Anfield


League Cup 5th round


31.03.2007


W


4 - 1


Anfield


Premier League


28.10.2007


D


1 - 1


Anfield


Premier League


Total over the last 10 years


Total
Games


Win
(Home)


Win (Away


Lose (Home


Lose (Away)


Draws (Home)


Draws (Away)


Goals (For)


Goals (Against)


25


5


3


4


7


3


3


34


37


8 wins


11 defeats


6 draws


71 (2.7 per game)



Overall, there isn’t much separating the two teams. However, during Rafa's reign, Liverpool have:

1. Only managed a measly three victories over Arsenal during Rafa's reign. The other six meetings led to five defeats and one draw.

2. Lost four of the last six meetings, conceding 16 goals along the way.

3. Failed to beat Arsenal at Anfield in the last four attempts.

Additionally, over the last 10 years, Liverpool have:

4. Not beaten Arsenal away since February 2000 – eight years ago.

5. Failed to win 18 of the last 26 games against Arsenal in all competition – that’s failure to win in 70% of games.

On a purely statistical analysis, it looks bleak! However, Liverpool is the form team in the premiership at the moment, and Arsenal’s form is stuttering, with one win in six games seeing them relinquish their lead at the top of the table.

Liverpool on the other hand are undergoing a mini-resurgence - seven straight victories has seen the team shoot up the premiership table to within 8 points of the lead. As a result, confidence is flowing, which now being arguably the best time to face Arsenal.

Having said all that, when Arsenal came to Anfield earlier in the season, they put Liverpool to shame with a stunning display of pass and move brilliance – the kind of football Liverpool used to be associated with.

Arsenal have been superb for much of the season, and Wenger has instilled a steel will in the team that never used to be there. They will definitely be up for upcoming games against Liverpool, and statistically speaking, they have to be favourites to do well over the three games.

Much will depend on how Liverpool play – will it be the creatively bereft, defensive-minded anti-football that has afflicted the team at various stages throughout the season, or will it be the free-flowing, free-scoring team that was doing so well before the Manchester United debacle? Only time will tell.

My predictions:

Wednesday, 02 April 2008
Champions League Qtr Final 1st Leg (Emirates)
Defeat

Saturday, 05 April 2008
Barclays Premier League (Emirates)
Draw

Tuesday, 08 April 2008
Champions League Qtr Final 2nd Leg (Anfield)
Win


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