Liverpool v Arsenal 10 year analysis: Who has the upper hand going into the three upcoming games?

Liverpool have played Arsenal 26 times over the last ten years, but with three crucial, season defining games on the horizon, which team has the best record and, by extension, the statistically better chance of emerging victorious?

Below is a table detailing every Liverpool-Arsenal game over the last ten years:

30.11.1997		W	1 - 0		Highbury			Premier League
06.05.1998		W	4 - 0		Anfield			Premier League
22.08.1998		D	0 - 0		Anfield			Premier League
09.01.1999		D	0 - 0		Highbury			Premier League
09.01.1999		D	0 - 0		Highbury			Premier League
13.02.2000		W	1 - 0		Highbury			Premier League
21.08.2000		L	0 - 2		Highbury			Premier League
23.12.2000		W	4 - 0		Anfield			Premier League
12.05.2001		W	2 - 1		Millennium St.			FA Cup Final
23.12.2001		L	1 - 2		Anfield			Premier League
13.01.2002		D	1 - 1		Highbury			Premier League
27.01.2002		L	0 - 1		Highbury			FA Cup 4th round
11.08.2002		L	0 - 1		Millennium St.			Charity Shield
29.12.2002		D	1 - 1		Highbury			Premier League
29.01.2003		D	2 - 2		Anfield			Premier League
04.10.2003		L	1 - 2		Anfield			Premier League
09.04.2004		L	2 - 4		Highbury			Premier League
28.11.2004		W	2 - 1		Anfield			Premier League
08.05.2005		L	1 - 3		Highbury			Premier League
14.02.2006		W	1 - 0		Anfield			Premier League
12.03.2006		L	1 - 2		Highbury			Premier League
12.11.2006		L	0 - 3		Emirates			Premier League
06.01.2007		L	1 - 3		Anfield			FA Cup 3rd round
09.01.2007		L	3 - 6		Anfield			League Cup 5th round
31.03.2007		W	4 - 1		Anfield			Premier League
28.10.2007		D	1 - 1		Anfield			Premier League
Total over the last 10 years
Total Games	Win (Home)		Win (Away	Lose (Home		Lose (Away)	Draws (Home)		Draws (Away)	Goals (For)	Goals (Against)
26	5		3	4		7	3		4	34	37
	8 wins			11 defeats			7 draws			71 (2.7 per game)

Overall, there isn’t much separating the two teams. However, during Rafa's reign, Liverpool have:

1. Only managed a measly three victories over Arsenal during Rafa's reign. The other six meetings led to five defeats and one draw.

2. Lost four of the last six meetings, conceding 16 goals along the way.

3. Failed to beat Arsenal at Anfield in the last four attempts.

Additionally, over the last 10 years, Liverpool have:

4. Not beaten Arsenal away since February 2000 – eight years ago.

5. Failed to win 18 of the last 26 games against Arsenal in all competition – that’s failure to win in 70% of games.

On a purely statistical analysis, it looks bleak! However, Liverpool is the form team in the premiership at the moment, and Arsenal’s form is stuttering, with one win in six games seeing them relinquish their lead at the top of the table.

Liverpool on the other hand are undergoing a mini-resurgence - seven straight victories has seen the team shoot up the premiership table to within 8 points of the lead. As a result, confidence is flowing, which now being arguably the best time to face Arsenal.

Having said all that, when Arsenal came to Anfield earlier in the season, they put Liverpool to shame with a stunning display of pass and move brilliance – the kind of football Liverpool used to be associated with.

Arsenal have been superb for much of the season, and Wenger has instilled a steel will in the team that never used to be there. They will definitely be up for upcoming games against Liverpool, and statistically speaking, they have to be favourites to do well over the three games.

Much will depend on how Liverpool play – will it be the creatively bereft, defensive-minded anti-football that has afflicted the team at various stages throughout the season, or will it be the free-flowing, free-scoring team that is currently doing so well? Only time will tell.

My predictions:

Wednesday, 02 April 2008
Champions League Qtr Final 1st Leg (Emirates)
Defeat

Saturday, 05 April 2008
Barclays Premier League (Emirates)
Draw

Tuesday, 08 April 2008
Champions League Qtr Final 2nd Leg (Anfield)
Win