Liverpool drew their 8th Premier League home game of the season against Spurs last night, and whilst the club is only four points off a champions league place at the moment, history suggests that a top four finish is now practically impossible.
Liverpool have dropped a staggering 16 points at home this season. The club's fans will not want to see the following stats but historical performance can sometimes be a persuasive indicator of how things may pan out in the future, and looking at Liverpool's league positions over the last 38 years, a disappointing trend seems to emerge.
KEY POINTS
* Prior to this season: In the last 38 years, Liverpool have only ONCE drawn 8 or more league games at home (2002-3; finished 5th)
* The most damaging statistic is this though: in 120 years of history, Liverpool have NEVER finished 4th in the top division after drawing 8 or more home league games.
That's the brutal truth: For Liverpool to finish 4th this season, 120 years of history would have to be overturned, and the statistical probability of that happening is probably very slim.
We might as well accept it: 4th place is not going to happen this season.
Jaimie Kanwar
Liverpool have dropped a staggering 16 points at home this season. The club's fans will not want to see the following stats but historical performance can sometimes be a persuasive indicator of how things may pan out in the future, and looking at Liverpool's league positions over the last 38 years, a disappointing trend seems to emerge.
KEY POINTS
* Prior to this season: In the last 38 years, Liverpool have only ONCE drawn 8 or more league games at home (2002-3; finished 5th)
* The most damaging statistic is this though: in 120 years of history, Liverpool have NEVER finished 4th in the top division after drawing 8 or more home league games.
That's the brutal truth: For Liverpool to finish 4th this season, 120 years of history would have to be overturned, and the statistical probability of that happening is probably very slim.
We might as well accept it: 4th place is not going to happen this season.
Jaimie Kanwar
Im surprised we're still in with a chance of getting 4th place.. We have been rubbish this season
ReplyDeleteIf we win FA cup and Carling cup, not finishing in top 4 may be forgiven.
ReplyDeleteConsidering where the club was 18 months ago on the brink of bankruptcy after years of decline, be grateful we are where are now.
ReplyDeleteOK. 8 home draws is just not good enough ... But we're still in the race, it's a FACT.
ReplyDeleteWe're not going to abdicate because of that, tha'ts shit mentality.
We have games against Arsenal Chelsea and Newcastle. And every week, one of these teams dropps points. FACT.
I'm not going to abdicate because of statistics. Fuck me we're Liverpool !!!!
YNWA.
Its just obvious we are currently not good enough and dont deserve to finish 4th - then again the teams above us arent much better - but they are better - and that is a FACT based on the current league standings. Things will need to change and change fast if we have any chance of moving up the table - at this stage we need Chelsea to lose 2 more games than us (assuming NO MORE home draws) which of course is possible - and we do play them at Anfield .. not sure that means much however!
ReplyDeleteKenny was pleased with the performance on Monday - and again he keeps harping on about - if only we had a wee bit more luck we would be banging them in .. sorry KD that just doesnt hold up anymore!!
If we were banging the goals in every game - and then in 1 game out of 10 we couldnt score - then you can say its just bad luck .. but its the other way around now . so its clearly not bad luck , its just bad finishing ..
We just dont have enough natural goalscorers to register winning scores which would then equate to less draws which equate to a higher league position and probably 3rd or 4th..
Stop feeding us this "bad luck" spiel KD = we dont buy it anymore . .
Be honest and say " Hey we just werent good enough today and we couldnt score goals - much like we have done in so many games - so therefore we dont deserve to be in the top 4"
Honesty would be appreciated - and it s the only way to improve and move forward - if you cant admit you have a problem you wont be able to fix it..
Jamie are you sure you are a LFC fan? I have been reading your articles for some time now and a saying keeps popping in to my head when ever I read anything by you " WHO NEEDS ENEMIES WITH FRIENDS LIKE YOU".
ReplyDeleteDon't get me wrong you have on the odd occasion written some good stuff but you provide so much fodder against LFC that it beggars belief.
Seriously buddy please get a grip we are LFC yes we deserve better but constantly putting the team down is not the LFC way.
Have a glass of water, take a deep breath look around and think it could be worse, we might not have a club to support at all.
YNWA
For this statistic to hold any sway at all, it needs to be the total draws!!! And there has only been 1 away draw, which means we can still fight on for even 2nd, as in 08/09 we had a total of 11 draws. Stats are not anything more than than.... stats, whichs means very little come end of the season.
ReplyDeleteWe will get 4th YNWA :-)
Doesn't matter just win 10 games out of 14 then surely 4 th place will be ours. If and only if we can 10 game
ReplyDelete"Years of decline"? Really??
ReplyDeleteWell if the home form tells one such story, the away form must tell a completely opposite story. Just looking at one set of results doesn't present a full picture...
ReplyDeleteEven if a team failed to win a single game at home all season, it could still potentially pick up 75 points for the season
its called realism mate; I agree with the author that 4th is a pipe dream for us this season (and probably next). In fact, that reaslisation dawned on me back in October 2011 that we wouldn't make 4th or get any where near it.
ReplyDeleteWe have a mediocre squad realtive to all the teams above us, including Newcastle i'm afraid. As I said before, KK's signings are the problem
that is a terrible comment. We are in the final of the League Cup, still in FA cup and still challenging for 4th place. It may be unlikely but we are challenging. We have had some brilliant performances this season as well as some disasters but to just say we have been rubbish this season is appalling ........... are you a fan?
ReplyDeleteMohammed - if you don't like this site, don't read it. Simple. As Spanish Red says, it's called realism. If you want to bury your head in the sand with blind faith then that's down to you. I prefer to tell it like it is.
ReplyDeleteYes Jay, not winning the league for over 20 years is, in my book, years of decline. Moores stagnated the club, sold out to the 2 stooges after agreeing a deal with Dubai for a few dollars more and the rest is history.
ReplyDeleteFor a club on the slide to near bankruptcy under massive debts when other clubs around us have progressed, to be in a cup final, top 7 and progressing in the FA cup is not bad at all. It will take a couple of years and a bigger stadium before we are title contenders again. It won't happen over night.
Sorry for being blunt, but this really is a silly headline and article. Statistics can be manipulated to say various things, but you choose to focus on a negative and suggest it's "practically impossible" to finish fourth. How ridiculous, the fact is fourth place is within reach and Arsenal and Chelsea are both struggling to win consecutive games.
ReplyDeleteYou could work out a multitude of scenarios with using history and our statistics from 2007/08 and 2008/09 when we drew far too many games, lost less than the title winners, scored the most goals in 2008/09 than everyone etc etc. Statistics mean nothing. The "brutal truth" is we are only four point behind Chelsea and we play them in May, so it's all to play for. This is what you should be concentrating on!!
even though we have lots of home draws, we've only drawn away once thus far-our total draws is only 9 so far, in past seasons we've come away with 4th place and higher with more total draws
ReplyDeleteAll the teams fighting for fourth are making hard work of it home or away. We need to keep an eye on Sunderland who are storming up the league.
ReplyDeleteWhy is always blind faith if someone challenges your opinion???????? Realism??? What is that term?? You are being realistic of the fact, In your opinion it is not possible/Probable??? As for telling it like it is, you report this and that , negative tripe and include your stats as your creditibility and probability etc.... doesnt actually prove anything JK.
ReplyDeleteYou are not a Fortune teller and unable to predict the future, this is your opinion.
We are 4 points behind Chelsea, still have to play them at Anfield and they are not exactly a great team and we easily beat them twice at Stamford Bridge(Something Man City or Man Utd could not achieve!!)
I accept your opinion and everyone is entitled to it but stop labelling all fans who try to look for positive sin some situations instead of always looking for negative aspects to situations.
I understand your stance on the current LFC regime but just because you are happy to SAY IT AS IT IS, doesnt in fact ,mean you are right and everyone who opposes to this opinion are the Blind faith Brigade, starting to be so disrespectful to LFC fans now!!!!!!!!!
It’s not good enough.. How can we finish a few points behind Spurs last season, spend 100 Mil and regress even further?? Spurs on the other hand spend a couple of Mil, loan signings and move a 11 points clear of us at this stage of the season!!??
ReplyDeleteTo be quite honest I think it’s a laughable that we can defend our league position after such investment, As much as i love Kenny, he is making the same mistakes as every other manger since he was last in, need to start signing some 'quality' players which aren’t just based on stats.
The only player that we should have really signed since hes been here is Suarez (and im loosing patience with his antics also)
Rant over!
Terrible opening comment i agree. Grow up lad. league cup final, chance of 1/4 final of the FA Cup.only 4 points off 4th with Chelsea and Arsenal to come to Anfield
ReplyDeleteI haven't seen this much exaggeration since Sean Dundee claimed to be the faster than Michael Owen.
ReplyDeleteI don't label everyone who tries to be positive part of the 'Blind faith brigade' - that is nonsense. I keep waiting for the day when you display some objectivity in your assessments, but it looks like I'll be waiting a long time.
Why did I say that in this instance? Could it be because the poster had a go at me for being 'negative', and questioned whether I am an LFC fan?
If someone says such things, and then proceeds to display blind faith, I will say as much, and I'm entitled to do so.
Ok Jaimie... first of all, I am going to put it right out there, I am not a Liverpool fan (I won't disclose the team I follow) but I watch just about every aired game each weekend and go to my teams games. I just wanted to point something out, I have been following the occasional "Kanwar masterpiece" online and I have finally been so amazed by your brilliance that I needed to tell you. You are so clever... why did anyone not think about this statistic before? Of course, Liverpool are not going to make top 4, I mean it is not like even the top two Manchester clubs have looked average this season, or even that Tottenham and Chelsea in 3rd and 4th have looked like they could drop points against Derry city. The top 4 have just been so much better than everyone else, that Liverpool wouldn't stand a chance even if they had 7 draws at home instead of 8. Lets be honest... they ARE 4 points from 4th place, I mean isn't that almost mathematically impossible as well? 14 games left... so thats 42 points on offer? If chelsea and Tottenham lose all their games and Liverpool win them, I think they still only scrape over the line. And you hit the nail on the head, 120 years of history... that is just crazy, I mean the past always ends up replicating the future. Just look at your table of Godly statistics, Between 1974 and 1990 there was only one finish outside the top 2! In 1991, they must have all been saying, look at the history...there is no way that Liverpool will finish outside the top 4 this year (they did of course), but in fairness they did not have your all knowing powers that have been exercised on this website for so long. I have been waiting for the Guardian to try to recruit you or something for their columns, though I guess pulling your ass out of the metre wide chair might take a little bit more than just a newspaper job offer. It is always so much more exhilirating and noble to know that you are consistently enlightening your loyal supporters on a website that is probably read by about 25 people every month... you just can't find that size of audience anywhere else these days. History ALWAYS end up repeating itself, just look at Spain (International team, just FYI) they always choke in the World Cup, even when they are the favourites... and then in 2010, once again choked in the final 0-1 to Holland... Actually hold on?
ReplyDeleteSorry, not sure if some of you ever did maths at school but you do know that there is 3 points for a win, don't you? 4 points off 4th place is not really any reason to feel confident about anything, is it? If we can beat Chelsea and they are still ahead of us, which could be worse after this weekend, how can some of you think that everything is ok? They are having a terrible season, so why, after 24 games, are they in front of us? And if, as we have shown already, we tend to draw too many games, where is this run going to come from where we make up the ground? The people showing concern are the supporters, the people hoping for someone else to do us a favour are dreamers.
ReplyDeleteHi Jaimie
ReplyDeleteBased on this history, your conclusion might not be correct. There isn't statistically significant number of years where Liverpool finish with 8 or more home draws and finish outside of the top 4 (only one time), for us to reach your conclusion.
From the data, I can conclude the obvious statement that if we draw less than 5 home games then we most likely made the top 4.
I am not blind enough to say that we will finish 4 (In fact I believe we will not). I am merely stating that you cannot make that claim based on the data shown below.
re your example: You're right - history proves that 5 or less home drwas = top 4 finish.
ReplyDeleteHow can 120 years not be 'statistically significant'? Liverpool have never finished in the top 4 with 8 or more home draws in 120 years of the club's history. That is definitely significant.
I haven't stated anything as a fact, I've merely given my opinion based on the stats, as evidenced by the following sentences:
"history suggests..."
* A disappointing trend seems to emerge..."
etc.
A top 4 finish shouldn't, but still is very much a possibility. History probably shows that if you've drawn 4 at home by Feb your miles of the team in 4th. That's not the case this season, we're 4 points off Chelsea who are struggling for consistency and still to visit Anfield. Arsenal won their first game this year at the weekend, and Newcastle will drop points too. I'm certainly not accepting 4th place isnt going to happen this season, and I hope KK and the team don't either.
ReplyDeleteHave to agree. Last year we finished 6th. This year we are............ 7th. Great Improvment! Everybody knows we can raise our game in any 1 off performance so the cup runs are irrelvant, Liverpool Football Club should be progressing to the latter stages in cup. Its the consistency in the leuage that is/ has been missing.
ReplyDeleteTo think we have progessed that far is a joke. We finsished 6th last season. This season we are 7th. We spent 100 Mil to fall 11 points behind spurs who invested next to nothing. Is that progress??????????
ReplyDeleteHe said that 18 months ago was the culmination of "years of decline". Considering that we had finished 2nd in the league 12 months previous to that, I don't see where the "years of decline" statement falls into that.
ReplyDeleteI'm not saying that we've made any progress. I'm saying that everybody needs to stop making this excuse about the state of the club when Dalglish arrived as if we were Blackburn
Top 7... lol
ReplyDeleteWe came 2nd just a few short years ago.
And Spurs were in a worse position when Redknapp took over, than Liverpool when Dalglish took over, yet managed to overcome all of the inherent disadvantages to overtake us so quickly.
If the powers that be at LFC buy into this nonsense that fans keep spouting about building slowly over the next few years, it's going to be another 20 before the title does every make its way back to Anfield!
In fairness though, a core of top class players did help mask the fact that the rest of the club was in sharp decline. the vast majority of signings were average, the academy didn't produce anyone and is only showing signs of life in the last year or so, and the club's cost base was getting wildly out of hand. The Near bankruptcy lead to the sales of alonso, mascherano, arbeloa, and eventually the departure of torres. The team that roy hodgson had wasn't very good (and that wasn't helped by his signings being among some of the worst value the club has ever achieved)
ReplyDeleteGreat post. Kanwar won't acknowledge this though because he is negative, it can't be argued with
ReplyDeleteDoesn't matter if the club accepts the facts or not, if you are 4 points off 4th place you are relying on someone else to do you a favour and then you need your team, who are good at drawing games, to go on a winning run. We've drawn at home to worse teams than Chelsea and Arsenal, so there is nothing, so far, to suggest that we are likely to get 4th. At this rate, we will be doing well to overhaul Newcastle.
ReplyDelete'Onest 'Arry has almost bankrupted every club he's managed at. Spurs aren't spending anymore, because they can't afford to... Louis Saha??? I'd rather have El Hadj Diouf back than sign him. They desperately needed a keeper, hence Friedel on a free, when a better long term solution was available (and replaced him at Villa) at a reasonable price. They might not have spent much last summer, but Spurs have spent plenty between Redknapp taking over and then.
ReplyDeleteIf you want an example of someone doing well without throwing money at it, look to Newcastle.
As for us finishing fourth? It's not out of the question, but when those above drop the ball, we fail to pick it up. Our record this season suggests we won't do it, and a Dalglish DID say in an interview after last nights game "We're where we deserve to be." The table doesn't lie. If I was a betting man, I wouldn't put money on us to get top 4.
Is progress ever instant and limited exclusively to the top spending club? Big spends tend to take 2-3 seasons to bear fruit - the other big spenders have proven so! And just about every club has strengthened considerably. With improvements and stability, it is no surprise the Manc clubs and Spurs are doing better than we are. To suggest we are in a worse position than Chelsea or Arsenal is ludicrous and our points in relation to theirs verifies we are on par.
ReplyDeleteThere is only 1 fourth spot and no less than 3 teams that are 4th best in the league, one of us has to finish 5th and one of us, 6th. We may be 7th right now, but in event we finish 5th or 6th, in the light of this season, you can't say we haven't progressed. It doesn't matter how much we spend. With the amount of changes we've made, it will not bear fruit till next season at the earliest, and that's being optimistic. Arsenal overhauled when we did, so they will always be around where we are. Chelsea changed managers and it is not known if he will make wholsesale changes yet and if he does, maybe we will be ahead of them, but it's only logical we won't be able to catch the Manc clubs and Spurs just yet. Individual quality of players alone and a good manager counts for nothing without stability over time. Man U has an inferior squad to Chelsea, Spurs and ourselves and it's hard to objectively state if Ferguson is a better manager, but they have had stability. Spurs have had more stability than Ourselves, Chelsea and Arsenal.
Let's say you averaged 71% in class for your exams and ranked 5th last year. If you average 78% and rank 10th, have you or have you not progressed? If your neighbour earned a grand more than you a month, you get a 500 pay rise and he gets a 200 raise, he's still making 700 more than you, but would you not be doing better?
Years of decline is correct. Our youth academy never produced anyone of note between Gerrard and Kelly. The club had also done nothing to improve its financial infrastructure so we could compete at the top. It was neglected in the 90s and then totally ruined when the club was first sold. The combined genius of Houllier and Benitez masked the fact that the club was no longer competitive amongst the elite. Had we not had Houllier and then Benitez, we'd have been exposed as a mid-table club. The 100m we spent was to play catch up.
ReplyDeleteWhen we finished 2nd in 08-09, it was the culmination of Benitez's 1st team project, one he had to undo to augment the squad. Despite our success that term, the lack of a viable squad led to its spectacular collapse the following season. Alonso being sold aside, the failure to rest key players saw injury after injury, that is what happens when you've played your best team almost every game. This season, we've seen Kenny rotating players freely without compromising quality. Rafa was constantly slammed for rotation from 04-10 because the alternatives to our best players were garbage.
Who is our most garbage player now? Downing? Henderson? Carroll? They're all better footballers than the likes of Degen, Ngog, Voronin, Konchesky, Poulsen, Traore etc. Maybe our best players had been better under Rafa and Houllier, but our squad is only as strong as our worst. When Rieira and Babel weren't performing, we would have loved to have Downing or Cole! Well, we've got them now.
If you look at our subs bench now, Doni aside, there is almost never anyone on it we wouldn't have starting for us and there isn't even enough space for potential talent or even players we think who deserve a game. The fact we haven't seen that for so long is evidence of how long we have been in decline.
Spurs actually had a more expensive squad when Harry took over and he has been in charge since. We've switched managers twice during that period. Comes as no surprise they've overtaken us. With the amount they've spent, even throughout Rafa's reign, if squad worth is to count for league standing, they should have been above us all that while, but their revolving door for managers up until Harry had prevented that. And of course the powers that be do not believe in building slowly! That is why they've spent more than 100m on an overhaul, but it still takes the overhaul 2-3 seasons to bear fruit, that's as fast as it gets.
ReplyDeleteWe've got the assistant manager responsible for Chelsea's defensive solidity from 05-07, the football director responsible for signing Spurs' 2 most highly rated players, the Barca youth coach who oversaw the development of Xavi, Iniesta, Messi et al. and the manager who won us our last 3 league titles. It won't be another 20 years before we challenge for the title again.
We threw money at Newcastle!
ReplyDeleteDoesn't matter if the club accepts the FACTS or not? what bloody facts? The fact that some pessimistic fans have no faith and given up on us getting 4th because we're only 4 frigging points behind, with 42pts to play for?! Get real!
ReplyDeleteI like the last paragraph to the above post. I'm also getting annoyed at the '100 million' brigade too. There's going to be a UEFA directive coming in soon regarding home grown players, hence the premium cost of British players.
ReplyDeleteAnyway, we doubled our money with Torres and Babel didn't go for free, although we did sell at a loss.
We're playing better football now than we have done since 08/09 and that's without;
Alonso
Mascherano
Torres
3 of the best players in their positions on their day. Sure, we're nowhere near as clinical as our play should demand but we're getting there. There will be changes in the summer. We will have a new striker who can score for fun, even a big name signing will come to us without Champions League football (if we fail to qualify) as we can pay them top dollar and there still is, no matter how the majority of nay sayers on here think, still a very high prestige in pulling on the famous red jersey.
Here's how:
ReplyDelete1. Before the 100m injection, Spurs already had a more expensive squad.
2. Spurs' initially more expensive squad has had more time, therefore stability under Harry Redknapp. It's his 4th year there.
2.b Key players like Modric, vdV and Assou Ekotto are more settled in terms of playing with the team. Imagine if Carroll, Downing, Adam and Henderson were just as settled?
3. Our overhaul was an inadvertible 1 step back to take 3 forwards performance-wise. They moved forward, and for us to move forward, we had to move a little backwards, of course a huge gap would open up!
With regards to signing players based on stats - what else do we consider? Scouts have indeed been sent to watch these players, in addition to extra information provided by agents. Do the scouts have to play FM or CM or watch enough Youtube videos to know who to sign?
Before we start laughing, we've got to know what we're laughing about.
Give up??? Then we might as well field all the under-18s against Man U this weekend and the rest of the season and play the senior team only for the cups...
ReplyDeletejamie what you seem to gloss over is the fact that the other top clubs are dropping points as well, this season has been unprecedented. Be optimistic for a change, rally the troops and lets go for fourth
ReplyDeleteAgreed, my reply was meant for Adam
ReplyDeleteSpurs squad was more expensice than ours before the 100 Mil injection? Thats hard to believe considering Tottenham's most expensive player at the time was Modric or Bentley for around £16. Torres, Mascherno, Glen Johnson etc all carried quite a large price fee. Do you have stats to justify this statement?
ReplyDeleteCarroll, Downing and Henderson (to a latter extent) have no business at Liverpool.
Downing puts the most crosses in the EPL so he must be a good enough for us? I and most others could have told you he is not the sort of quality we are looking for. The guy is 27 yet still hasnt got a guranteed spot in the England team even with the lack of options we have down the left. I agree you must look at stats but it cant be based soley on this.
At the time im sure if we put a £35 Mil bid in for Benzema, £20 Mil for Adam Johnson we would have got them, you seriously tell me that wouldnt be an improvment on the two we have got. Adam Johnson is a far better player than Downing, Stas or not!
At the end of the day we have to back the players at our club but feel the same mistakes are being made as most previous mangers, For every good player we get, 4 average players are follwed. Not good enough for LFC
Issues with the manager led to Alonso's departure, Arbeloa left due to an expiring contract, and Mascherano wanted to leave even when the team had just finished 2nd in the league.
ReplyDeleteIf you're going to just say that 'good players were masking the decline' then we can just say that everybody bar Man City & Spurs has likewise been in decline, so it's evens.
Btw, our reserves looked better a few years ago with the likes of Pacheco, Nemeth, Plessis, Insua etc than it does nowadays with the likes of Suso, Sterling, Morgan, Coady, Robinson etc. Hopefully the new kids will get more opportunity than their predecessors did, but as far as I'm concerned, they've done nothing to show they are any more talented than those predecessors were.
So 08-09 was the culmination of 10 years of the reign of two "geniuses" in charge of the club, but the club was in decline at the same time??
ReplyDeleteSpurs have spent plenty. As have Liverpool. And you bringing up the case of Newcastle just further makes my point - Liverpool have had more than enough money to build title challenging squads, but have squandered it all too frequently.
ReplyDeleteJust because we haven't spent as much as some other clubs, or because some clubs have failed to deliver on their money spent, doesn't disprove the point or make it ok to just look their failures as evidence that LFC shouldn't aim to do better.
I wouldn't put money on us to get 4th, but all that goes to show is just how ill spent the money was
Redknapp's Spurs overtook us before Benitez moved on... A year after Redknapp picked up a team that had been mismanaged by Ramos. In the same manner that Hodgson mismanaged Liverpool prior to Dalglish's arrival
ReplyDeleteYour hypothetical situation would work if our results did actually improve so signifcantly.
ReplyDeleteA better hypothetical would be;
A child suffers an illness one year which saw him miss a lot of class and his test averages drop from 78% to 68% and his rank in the class drop drop from 3rd to 6th.
The next year his parents decide to go out and spend big money for the first time on a private tutor to catch him up with the leaders in his class again.
The top performers in his class remain achieving averages of around 84%, while following the expensive tuition, the fully recovered child's grades improve from 68% to 70% and his rank remains around 5th-6th in his class.
Should his parents call that tuition a wise investment of their money??
forgive my ignorance - why exactly did we need to take a step backwards??
ReplyDeleteBtw, as far as I'm concerned, our scouts WOULD be better served by playing a few video games than by doing whatever they have been doing in recent years...
Can you also share you views on the ' 1 step backward, 3 step forward with regard to Newcastle who only gained promotion to the PL LAST season!??
ReplyDeleteCome on Jamie think about it properly. You are using a statistic that has only happened once before. It's not really a statistic worthy of an article is it. I'm sure you could spin a positive article based on no home defeats, 6 away wins or most clean sheets if you wanted.
ReplyDeleteYep! That is correct! I'm sure you must have heard commentators saying the team played beyond themselves or that the cracks were just papered over. We performed much better than this season then, but according to Ferguson, we would never be title contenders then, but before this season kicked off, we would certainly be thereabouts?
ReplyDeleteMoores sold because he knew the club had been in decline, but the people he sold to made it worse. The might of a club isn't just about results. It's about having the conditions to keep churning out results and it's those conditions that had been in decline. We stopped producing stars. Our bench was woeful. We couldn't afford to upgrade the squad without significant compromise.
We may not be seeing results now, but at least we know our squad is capable of competing with the best. On a good day, we can match the likes of United and Chelsea. Our bench finally looks respectable. We can now afford to improve the squad without compromising. Our youth academy is buzzing. That is progress.
History, cheh. You create history, not fear it =_=
ReplyDeleteYes, that was a consequence of our thin squad imploding and Spurs stabilising. All other things being equal at that point, Spurs ought to have been 4th, with ourselves 5th. Arsenal did well in pushing us further back, and that implosion set us further back to 7th.
ReplyDeleteFrom that point on, the stability at Spurs meant they would only improve further. Managerial changes and squad overhauls have put Chelsea, Arsenal and ourselves behind them right now. No surprise we're all fighting for the same position. It was a good idea for our club to do both simultaneously. Unless AVB pulls a rabbit out of his hat, seeing as Chelsea will have to overhaul very soon, this means we will be in a better position than them for the next 2-3 seasons, by which time we should be on equal footing with the likes of Spurs, United and City.
In Bellamy, Carroll, Gerrard, Kuyt and Suarez, we have players who have scored for fun at some point during their careers. Our play is deceptive. We don't lack finishers, we lack finishing, and that boils down to understanding, coordination and style of attack. We need more 1-2s and our players need better timing. Kenny calls it luck, I call it refinement.
ReplyDeleteFact of the matter is our forwards aren't all on the same wavelength yet. Bellamy and Kuyt may read Carroll and Suarez well, but that is down to experience. Carroll is just beginning to figure out the team, which he needed to because his play is based on that. Now the rest of the team need to figure Suarez out because he is an alpha, but that is tricky because he is unpredictable. On paper, Carroll and Suarez ought to be a great pairing because Suarez dictates, Carroll supports, and their qualities complement each other. The stumbling blocks are the language barrier and the fact that Suarez is so hard to read.
Ideally, we would have had Aquilani to pull the strings up front, but that is not going to happen, and in Lucas' absence, Gerrard has his work cut out on the pitch. Of course, we should eventually have Adorjan, Shelvey, Suso and Teixeira to tap into once they start to mature, which is a prerequisite of these 'brain' type players, but that said, they're still a good 2-3 years away.
IMHO, we don't need a striker as much as an effective playmaker, but to sign someone for more than 2-3 seasons will keep our kids out of the side. Ricardo Montolivo would be interesting, but if we did sign him, it wouldn't be for a short fix. Of course, it won't be a problem next season when Lucas returns and Gerrard can then assume that mantle as he had done under Rafa, that is assuming both Lucas and Gerrard stay fit! Then again, Shelvey could be ready to step in more regularly. It would be equally awesome if we can't sell Aquilani yet and can't loan him out, and then the forwards we currently have will start scoring for fun!
Before this season we were contenders for the title, now we're contenders for 4th place and everything is hunky dory?
ReplyDeleteMan Utd have owners draining the club and have been in decline for a good while also. That doesn't mean that they suddenly start acting like challenging for the League Cup makes a good season though!
Spurs stabilising?? The team was in the relegation spots when Ramos was given the boot!
ReplyDeleteAnd what about Man U's squad overhaul?? Or even that at Newcastle who have only just been promoted and are already above us with a whole bunch of cheap new imports in their team??
Newcastle is having a good season. Everyone is entitled to that every once in a while, especially Newcastle, who had an awful season 3 seasons ago. They won't be above us very long. United have barely overhauled. Do they ever play more than 1 new player in central midfield? How many games has Phil Jones had as a defender for them? The Man U squad is extremely stable.
ReplyDeleteRamos was a mismatch, and Harry certainly didn't overtake us immediately, but with a more expensive squad than ours, surely it was just waiting to happen?
Is it also a bizarre coincidence our defence is 2nd best in the league with only 1 new key addition? How many of our new attackers start each time round, even if we discount Bellamy? How much play time have Adam or Henderson had with Gerrard? That is what an overhaul does. Why is Barca so good? No less than 9 of their squad went to their academy, out of whom 7 are starters for them. Their manager was also raised in the same academy. They're all on similar wavelengths. Our players have barely had time to adjust to a mutual wavelength. Let's not forget last year was the first time since City's massive investments that they finished in the top 4, and Mansour bought the club in 08.
The 100m City spent in 09 got them a Europa League spot for 10-11. We look on course for achieving that too. Plus, we would probably be adding silverware the same season, which they didn't. If we do indeed make the top 4 by the end of the season, we would have progressed at a faster rate than they did.
This is, by far, one of the most comprehensive and rational posts I have seen anywhere on the internet concerning Liverpool Football Club. Clearly an educated poster and not some neddy chav gobbing off and spelling every word incorrectly.
ReplyDeleteI enjoy a good discussion or a debate but get tired quickly of the 'my dad's bigger than your dad' BS I see on this and many other forums/comments sections every single day.
Another point that you could have mentioned about Dalglish's summer signings was their ages. For the most part, they were all young footballers with potential. Bellamy was a no brainer, he's a proven grafter and match winner and he loves Liverpool. He even took a massive pay cut to join us.
Coates was the best young player at the Copa America last summer. Henderson is the captain of England U-21s. Carroll, at 21 years of age, was playing with no fear last season and scoring for fun - remember the goal he scored against us at St James? Very similar to the one he scored against City when he came back from injury. Downing has never been a prolific goal scorer but was one of the best players at Villa and put in consistent performances. I could go on and on but it would mostly fall on deaf ears.
We're getting there, albeit slower than we'd like, in this world of instants, but we are getting there.
I would write in a bit more detail but probaly risk getting the sack with the amount of time i spend on this site!
ReplyDeleteI think that's a great post mate. respect your thoughts on the situation but dont agree with some points. Surely these players should have grasped each other games (at least abit more than they have done) by now. Full pre season, Carrol and Suarez 2nd season (albeit not full)?? I dont feel thats a good enough excuse when you consider the amount of changes at Newcastle. You cant dismiss Newcastle's achivements down to a 'suprise great season'. They have a project in place and you would have to say its going better than our atm. When you look at the players they bought in compared to ours you would have to say they have done much better than our scouts.
Thing is we signed players who lack the fight to play for Liverpool Football Club. Henderson and Downing in particular dont have the drive/ confidence/ bottle (call it whatrever you like) to play for us. They would rather look around the pitch for someone else to stand up rather than make things happen. When you look at our other players Gerrard, Bellamy, Adam, Lucas etc you can see that they have the passion and belief to make things happen and fight to win a game.The two ive mentioned just dont have the mentality to play for such a big club. They hide on the pitch far to often and i dont think that is something that can be changed.
I would rather have Guthrie and Hamill than two we have got.
P.S I would honestly have Riera over Downing any day!
I think you are the one who needs to get real, as you put it. If you are 4 points behind your rivals, all the screaming and shouting and stamping your feet as you want will not ensure that you can make 4th spot. It is out of your hands and you need someone else to do you a favour. What do you not understand about that?
ReplyDeleteThe facts, if it has escaped you, are in the league table.
Newcastle did it by removing troublesome elements from the squad and getting all their players determined to play for the shirt. They also did not sell two of their most creative midfielders, who would have tuned into Suarez's play, to one rival in the Premier League and to Italian giants who could afford to buy the player but took him on loan. Meireles, in particular, showed an understanding with Suarez, in our win at the Emirates, that no other player has managed since. Yet we sold him.
ReplyDeleteDefinitely, but it is not easy when teams are more than 3 points ahead of you, because you cannot stop them winning their games!
ReplyDeleteThis article totally ignores that prior to 1981 it was only 2 points for a win. If that was the case now we would be above Arsenal and there. Its would be very little between the clubs battling for top four.
ReplyDeleteIt ignores the fact that prior to 2009 the same statistic applied to 7 draws but we finished second with 7 draws.
Not really a "brutal truth" is it. It's just spinning a statistic to be negative rather than using more positive statistics.
Thanks a lot for posting this table, it was very curios to review the whole team history at a time, and the results look much more impressive once there is a possibility to make comparisons.
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