14 Jan 2012

REVEALED: How £110m bought LFC a poxy 2.6% chance of making the top 4...

Liverpool drew their 7th home game of the season against Stoke earlier today, and whilst the club is still in touch with the the champions league places, history seems to suggest a top four finish is now very unlikely.

Since returning to Anfield, Dalglish has spent over £100m on new players, including £75m on Andy Carroll, Jordan Henderson and Stewart Downing, three players you would expect to step up to the plate and have a major impact for the club.

All three were ineffective against Stoke, and the brutal truth is that after a year in charge, Kenny Dalglish's huge financial outlay has not really brought Liverpool any closer to finishing in the top four.

It would be madness to write Liverpool off at this stage, and that's not my intention at all, but historical performance can sometimes be a persuasive indicator of how things may pan out in the future, and looking at Liverpool's league positions over the last 38 years, a disappointing trend seems to emerge.

LFC Home Draws Comparison: 1974-2011

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KEY POINTS

* 7 or more home league draws only three times in the last 38 years.

* 8 finishes outside the top 4 with LESS than 7 home league draws.

The most compelling fact is, however, this:

* Only ONE top four finish in in the last 38 years with 7 or more home draws.

In statistical terms, this means that Liverpool's top 4 success rate with 7 or more draws is a depressing 2.6%

What makes it even more galling is that Liverpool have racked up these draws with only HALF the season gone. On current form, it seems unlikely that the club will go the rest of the season without another home draw, and in the modern era, Liverpool have never finished in the top four with 8 or more home league draws.

Given the facts, there is is clearly a high probability - specifically a 97% chance - that Liverpool will not finish in the top four this season.

The good news is that the last top four finish in spite of 7 or more home league draws took place fairly recently, under Rafa Benitez in 2008-9. It can be done, but is this Liverpool team capable of match Rafa's team and putting together a superb run in the final three months of the season?

The odds are clearly stacked against Liverpool, but if the club is to finish in the top 4 then there can be no more home draws for the rest of the season.

Given the club's current average of a draw every 2.6 league games, it's definitely going to be tough.

Can Liverpool do it?

Jaimie Kanwar


67 comments:

  1. Jaimie, you fucking sick bastard!!!!

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  2. I still have a sneaking feeling that this could be your year Jamie. Only 13pts off the top with only 6 teams ahead! The future is RED 

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  3. Valentino_makubex8:39 pm, January 14, 2012

    liverpool can do it, if  kenny Daglish is sacked,

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  4. I am sat here staring at the league table and for the life of me i cannot see how we can get fourth,the top 3 have gone spurs are in third and 11 points clear of us forget catching the top 3,this leaves 4th chelsea are 5 pts clear of us and arsenal are in front of us with a game in hand,also newcastle go in front of us if they beat qpr.It is patently obvious to even a clown that John Henry has given his money to the wrong people,he was against appointing dalglish as he wanted a young manager like he had with his baseball team.I really feel for John Henry he must feel duped,on the other hand he might look as though hes quiet and sensitive and easily led,but he hasnt got were hes got by making the same mistake twice.It is obvious to me he hasnt given Dalglish any money in this transfer window cause he doent trust him and i for one dont blame him.

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  5. If it would be 'madness' to write us off at this stage, then what was it when I wrote us off at the end of August?
    I don't know how to say this any clearer - our players aren't good enough; our signings were terrible if 4th place was our objective; and the fact that kenny seems reluctant to sign anyone in January would suggest that we have no intent to improve on where we are.

    Again, we'll get 6th place more than likely. 5th at the very best.

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  6. the last person we want back at lfc

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  7. if we cant score goals at home we cant make the top 4 simple, we need to get some one to knock in a few and get on a roll, question is who> do we persist with carol and hope he starts to get it right or bring someone in or look at the reserves. Its a question only the mansgment can answer but it needs to be answered quickly. Dont forget we are building and we have played some good football but goals will make it in the end a great season.

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  8. I am having lots of doubts about this team, though the squad is big and better that past squads but their is serious lack of quality in attack and if Liverpool don't buy quality then their will be no chance of finishing in top 4. Man City, Man Utd are going to fight for title, Spurs are looking very consistent and Chelsea is also getting back in grove and Arsenal also are looking much more consistent which leaves Liverpool who are not getting the right results. Quality Striker and a winger are a must if Liverpool wants to finish in top 4. Kenny needs to address this issue sooner because it has cost Liverpool a lot of points already.

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  9. No. Not for the above reasons! But when u have a player like duck kuyt who cannot score simple goals like the sitter he missed today. Plus Andy Carroll will take time IMO 2/3 years to be at home at LFC, we ain't takin our chances which the teams above are doin all 2 ez, kk thinks we're ok but I don't agree, we've missed to many at this stage to be top 4, hope I'm wrong! Ynwa

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  10. we have no chance

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  11. LFC are MEGA BORRING TO WATCH - KENNY HAS NOT GOT A CLUE

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  12. it really depends in what capacity he returns in?
    if he replaced DC as key scout and also strategic advisor to Ken then that could be a very severe threat to the premiership.

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  13. sadly 3 players he signed have done alot worse than anyone could of expected, just shocking to be honest, carroll and downing mainly and the other two not a lot better.
    there is just no belief wat so ever, is it lack of character or is it kenny and the staff not doing good enough either.
    were starting to look worse than we did last season with a smaller squad and not these players. im big fan of kenny and want him to stay but it beggers belief wat were seeing.
    its bad when you start to look forward  to next season already, feels quite familular.

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  14. lin our play from last years last 3 months is gone.what has happened to the runners into the box and speed of movement we had when maxi,suarez,meireles and lucas combined, some are gone and some injured,but the brittish only element to the attack does not have the same effect,where has the beautiful football gone.ack of foreign flair is evident,the fluidity

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  15. I dont know if it is kenny or comolli who signs these players but one thing is certain whichever it is needs to be seriously assesed to see if they are up to the job, we have spent millions of pounds on players that are very average and wouldnt get a look in at man utd, arsenal, spurs, chelsea or man city...
    And i am fed up of people be it fans or anyone else saying "be patient they are for the future, give them time".
    We have been signing these players for the future for years and we are still waiting!!

    We signed henderson and still i cannot see any reason why we did, he is vastly overrated and was vastly over priced.. as was downing who is an ok player but has never been anywere near a £20 million pound player at any point of his career and never will be.

    Then we come to the £35 million pound man carroll, well when you look at the likes of aguero at man city, it shows you the type of player £35 million should buy you and you wonder who's fault is it that they have aguero and we have carroll.. Before anyone starts sayin aguero wouldnt have come to us, i am not saying he would have (but we will never know that for certain as the option was never given to him) i am merely pointing out the type of player we should have for the kind of fee we paid for carroll.

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  16. Want to have a 5 hundred pound bet for ch&rity that LFC finish in the top four?!

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  17. Carroll - Waste of money. Poor excuse for a pro footballer.
    Downing - Waste of money. Could have got Lennon pr Mata for that price.
    Adam - Average player, should be in an average team.

    If LFC don't wake up soon and actually scout for world class players we have no chance of a title for many years to come.

    We should get Suzo, Coady and Sterling in the team and give em a run.

    The truth hurts as much as I don't want to admit it.

    YNWA
     

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  18. Want to have a 5 hundred pound bet for ch&rity that LFC finish in the top four?!

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  19. TTake yourselves back to the late 80's early 90's!!! Ferguson come to a UTD team under Atkinson that was finishing 2nd behind Liverpool maybe 3rd for most seasons. The big thing is they could not take the title. Ferguson took over and guided them to 2nd in his first season. The next dropped to mid table as he began his rebuild. The next is history as we know it, King Kenny is a master class in building attacking winning teams. Forget Newcastle or even his short tenure at Celtic. The players he has bought is what we can get right now! Simple. we have the correct owners who will back us, but until we start to get into the champions league again we will not attract the Hazards, shaqiri etc. KK's job is to secure a top 4 finish and if we can prevent further let downs against inferior opposition then we may be in with a shout!!! Today was a massive let down, but I do believe that Kenny can make this a successful year/season in a big way!!!!

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  20. Why don't we give Eccleston another chance got the pace to worry defences even if he is on the bench or Silva who are more powerful then Sterling and Suso who are both still developing but do have the skill and pace.

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  21. Liverpool should SACK KD for playing 5 defenders against a team that never attacked - disgraceful!

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  22. Daily Mail are reporting that Poulson is still a Liverpool player and is on loan in France at Evian and we are still paying most of his wages !!!!! We could get him back!

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  23. Why should he be sacked? The strangest thing is we don't look like losing games! No one can say except for Spurs a team as looked like beating us but then we don't look like winning games which is why we are cursed with drawing at home and until we get a forward or winger with pace to give us something extra I don't think it will change. 

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  24. Did you know Stokes record in the last 8 games matched Spurs record! Are you sure they don't attack?

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  25. Kenny does not have the brains to be a modern day manager. trying to re create blackburn 1995 was always going to fall flat. The inspirational effect he had following Woy has worn off,he is a relic.
    There is no way Rafa would have us looking this shite after such a huge spend.

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  26. Stoke had no shots on target (I was at Anfield). We had 1 because we played with 5 defenders. Bottom line...sack KD.

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  27. Please stop posting the same comment over and over again. Once is enough.

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  28. Sorry all to go off the subject a bit , but i really think kennys team selections are 1 of the main reasons things are the way they are . I like most was baffled looking @ Johnson against city & the look on Johnsons face said it all.
    Then today aginst stoke downing playing off the striker & playing 1 striker @ home.
    i though we were trying to get 4th .
    wont happen with this bizzare behavor from kk.
    i thought after rafa things would change .
    but same ol story.
    YNWA.

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  29. the truth of  the matter is the sacking of rafa was extremely poor, kD is good man manger and would have been good to bring in after rafa was stupidly sacked. kd would have got the best of that team rafa left and could have easily finished top 4 or even won the league (assuming roy never got a chance to do what he did to the team mentality )  but as far as building a squad kd has no clue, whats more am pretty sure suarez is not even his signing, thus its really only bellamy and to a lesser extent enrique who r actually making a contribution,  all in all if kd doest win any cup and finishes out of top 4 it would be honourable if he stepped down, i dont feel that John H needs to sack, kd should put the the clubs interest first and do whats best for the club. as i said if he can win a cup, then he deserves another season, though he should be more serious in the transfer window and not show the same bias to british based players as he did in the last one. If he does step down, i know i have a soft spot for rafa, but if u realistically look at it, it only makes sense to bring Rafa back. H e knows whats it takes to beat the top 4, he has experience and most certainly has the tactical nous to compete or even win the champs, am sure he would develop a good relationship with John H as they both what to make the liver morden and successful, this would be match made in heaven, hopefully 
    T. Werner  appreciated what rafa did for the club (unlike a certain MD who was rightly let go after the fenway take over) and bring him back if kd does not finish top 4 and does not win anything.
       

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  30. the truth of  the matter is the sacking of rafa was extremely poor, kD is good man manger and would have been good to bring in after rafa was stupidly sacked. kd would have got the best of that team rafa left and could have easily finished top 4 or even won the league (assuming roy never got a chance to do what he did to the team mentality )  but as far as building a squad kd has no clue, whats more am pretty sure suarez is not even his signing, thus its really only bellamy and to a lesser extent enrique who r actually making a contribution,  all in all if kd doest win any cup and finishes out of top 4 it would be honourable if he stepped down, i dont feel that John H needs to sack, kd should put the the clubs interest first and do whats best for the club. as i said if he can win a cup, then he deserves another season, though he should be more serious in the transfer window and not show the same bias to british based players as he did in the last one. If he does step down, i know i have a soft spot for rafa, but if u realistically look at it, it only makes sense to bring Rafa back. H e knows whats it takes to beat the top 4, he has experience and most certainly has the tactical nous to compete or even win the champs, am sure he would develop a good relationship with John H as they both what to make the liver morden and successful, this would be match made in heaven, hopefully T. Werner  appreciated what rafa did for the club (unlike a certain MD who was rightly let go after the fenway take over) and bring him back if kd does not finish top 4 and does not win anything.

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  31. What a load of bulshitt..kenny is master of attacking winning teams....at blackburn he fockin bought the title and then legged it when pressure was coming.

    with us he took over us in the 80's from Joe fagan ..a team which had won the league and was in the final of European cup ...so it was just continuity but when a few years went by and things got difficult he legged it...remember palace fa cup...

    His teams are so attacking that we have conceded almost as many goals as we have scored .

    Kk will be gone come end of season....but hopefully he will crack up before then and be gone

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  32. thats the first will need back if kenny leaves it jus makes all kinds of sense

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  33. If that's the case why did we buy the Scottish version of Poulson (Charlie Adam ) and waste another 8million

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  34. the right question is: why we draw when we play at Anfield and we win out? The answer is simple: when we play out, the game is open, and when we play at Anfield the 
    the game is closed by the opponent, so the problem of our team is that we do not have good dribblers who know penetrate into the opponent's area. 

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  35. I would argue that it's actually a 33.33% chance of finishing in the top four, as we have only drawn 7 or more home games in a season on three occasions over the past 38 years and on one of those occasions we finished in the top four. 

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  36. You can't draw nearly every home game and expect to finish in the champions league places. I feel Kenny went too safe with his buys. Buying average English players (that will do a job) and that played in the league for years instead of having the balls to take a risk on more talented foreign players. Benitez main downfall was his dealings in the transfer market but you'd have to say he didn't do as bad as Kenny. When Benitez spent big we got Torres, Raina, Mascherano, Alonso, all for under 100m Kenny bought Carroll, Downing, Henderson, Adams and they cost more. Don't get me wrong I love Kenny but he fucked up.

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  37. You've spot on. I thought things would change too especially the quality of player brought in after Kenny saying "we'll only buy quality players that are better than what we already have here" Carroll? Downing? wtf!!  It's not like we're just saying it now because they're playing bad NONE of the Liverpool fans wanted Downing we knew he was average and NOBODY wanted Carroll when I heard we paid 35 MILLION I knew straight away that was a HUGE mistake just like everyone else knew.

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  38. sack kenny if we are to get any where near the top 4....115 million pounds spent and nothing to show for it.we finished in 6th last season and still sit there..where is the improvement????????? i'd say kenny has wasted 115 million pounds of liverpool f.c

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  39. Good Comment,

    Mizzy bare in mind that at the end of the season KD fans will look to blame Damien Comolli as they don't want to face reality.
    I agree with you that the Fenway should have really gone after Either Rafa, Pelligrini or anther younger hungrier 
    There is no way either of those two managers would have gone after Carroll at that price.
    I think you'll find that KD will not resign he'll have to be sacked considering what happened last time he left.
    The press may turn on KD as he's hardly making friend in the media with his caustic manner (justified sometimes).
    KD destroyed his own reputation as a manager at LFC after the caretaker role.
    He should have walked at the end of last season.

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  40. this is problem with having so many liverpool fans, you got tonnes of negative ones also. 

    Wait a minute.

    Who honestly believes that pumping money into a club with result in automatic glory??? Don't forget we got the FA and League Cup to win yet. I think we all need to realise Dalglish is building a team for the future, to keep the LFC spirit alive. If you want to spend alot of money and win a league, BY ALL MEANS! but look at Chelsea now, is that what you guys want?

    To all LFC Fans: TRUST KING KENNY AND COMOLLI, YOU DO NOT KNOW BETTER TACTICS OR TRANSFERS THEN THEM, STOP PRETENDING TO BE A PUNDIT AND ENJOY YOUR TEAM OR GO BECOME A MAN UTD FAN. 

    Thank you, 
    LFCLaw

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  41. At least they won the league by spending money

    If you wanna see a team spend money and not win, then look at us

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  42. John Henry wanted to sign AVB. It was AVB or Dalglish. Was Henry duped? I don't think so. You also have to remember that while Dalglish has a major say on who gets signed, whether a player is signed or not is down to Damien Comolli who you can be sure has alot of input. Downing, Henderson and Adam seem very much like Comolli signings to me. His signings have typically never performed for a season or 2, but then they suddenly become very good. Look no further than Bale, Modric, Assou Ekotto, Kevin Prince Boateng, Gael Clichy and Kolo Toure. It is Comolli with Henry's wallet, although Dalglish is the key decision maker on what the team needs.

    It does look like Dalglish wanted Carroll though, but I think we'll need some patience here. Dalglish did sign Barnes, Aldridge, Beardsley, Given and Shearer. We may not finish in the top 4 this season, but we will be challenging for the title in 2 more seasons, if the world doesn't end this year!

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  43. Carroll is on 90k a week compared to Aguero's 200k. Rumours had it we offered 40m cash for Aguero, but we were never prepared to give him 200k a week.

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  44. do you know how many years it took Alex Ferguson to win the league? 
    So what you are effectively saying, is that you would rather win now, and have a crappy future? Think clearer my friend...

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  45. Could be because our opponents know they have no chance of winning. Teams don't go to old toilet to park the bus the way they do at Anfield/Emirates/Stamford Bridge. In fact, many teams that lose at old toilet even play better than Man U, but because teams can be up against them at half time and they have a garbage midfield, so teams take their chances there. Blackburn had a good go and came away with all 3 points. That it is easier to play at old toilet ironically makes it easier for them to win. Teams don't go to Whitehart Lane to park the bus either, despite their obvious superiority.

    Teams come to Anfield/Emirates/Stamford Bridge largely expecting not to get a chance to play and Stoke was a perfect example, as was Blackburn. Sure we fluffed it against United/City/Swansea, but the quality of our football is our own downfall. How often do any of our players get decent 1-on-1s with opposing goalkeepers? Without the ball, our opponents can only watch the game from their 18 yard boxes and protect their keepers, who consequently put in MOTM performances. However, unlike Barcelona, we have not mastered the art of moving our opponents around effectively so that we have the space to score. Once again, the key here is patience. The English game is typically urgent, the patient games of Rafa and Mourinho bordering on painful to watch. If any of us remember the 2007 CL semi-finals, that was visually administered chloroform.

    What makes Kenny so great as a manager is that like Wenger, there is so much entertainment value in the football. Even with 5-6 defenders, our players pass the ball beautifully. What we truly need now is not so much dribblers as patience, not only for our new players to click, but on the pitch. If we want to press and dominate, then we have to pry the parked buses open slowly. Fancy dribbling itself, as demonstrated by Suarez, will not do it.

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  46. To be fair to those fellow fans though, Kenny did buy a league winning team at Blackburn!

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  47. Man City did not even challenge for the title nore crack the top 4 immediately through their spending, same goes for Chelsea. Chelsea spent big under Ranieri and it didn't win them the title, not until Mourinho arrived. City were already spending big when Thaksin bought them, and even then, through Hughes to Mancini, they only made it to the top 4 last season. Now that we are finally spending big, surely we'll have to wait 2-3 more seasons before we should realistically demand champions league football.

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  48. True septimus_severus, am on the liver facebook page and seems like people r pointing the finger at comolli for these signings, but in all honesty i think suarez is his only true signing, while pelligrini would be good so as any other young hungry manager am inclined to go for rafa, not jus cause i have a soft spot but, rafa doesnt have to "reinvent the wheel" so to speak, he already knows what it takes to beat a teams in the top 4, he already knows how the prem is, getting young manager wont be bad bt it would take them double the time it would take rafa only because rafa has already got the experience, as i said with rafa's eye for talent (excluding his fringe players buys who were his worst signigs) and john h backing u can expect us to be back where we belong, English's more successful

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  49. I think kk should be given more time, but he wasted over 100m in the space of a year (money we don't have) People have a right to be angry. If he buys more English players for high prices I want him out/gone! That's just my opinion. Hopefully he learned from Carroll/Downing/Adams and look in the Spanish league etc.

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  50. Reason why city didn't win before because they also had a plonker ( Mark Hughes )who was spending over the odds on average players unlike Mancini

    Hughes signings...
    Toure ...16million..
    Santa Cruze ..18million
    Lescott ..24 million
    bellamy ...15million
    Barry .....12million
    Adebayeur.....25million
    de jong ....18million
    Wayne bridge 12million
    Jo .....18million
    Robinio ....32million
    Tevez....25million

    Just to name some Mark signed for over 240million...waste of money at over the odds price apart from Tevez.....90% of these are not even in Mancini team.

    So the Mancini team is

    Milner 24million
    dzeko...27million
    ballotelli...26million
    Yaya Toure 26million
    silva....22million
    Johnson..6million
    clichy ..6million
    aguerro ..37million

    Mancini is buying quality whilst we are doing a Mark Hughes..just like some people still say Hughes wasn't given money to spend at city

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  51. Think you will find we did sell Poulson its The Mail who have got there facts wrong.

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  52. hardly in the same bracket as chelsea or city, spent about a quarter of wat they have spent.
    dribs and drabs spring to mind, no one had a lump sum to have a prooper go. fact

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  53. but we spent 35 pence on carrol and 19.99 pence on downing etc etc
    its pittence!!
    as you have shown, thanks

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  54. 2003/04 £153 million no trophies 2004/05 £47million Chelsea spent over £200 million net spend to win the league in 05!

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  55. You have to pay for quality and i would rather pay twice the wages for a player at least 5 times as good!
    and even if we arent prepared to pay them wages i am sure there are many alternatives to aguero who are a lot better then carroll and i have never heard the rumour we offered £40million for aguero

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  56. We sold a £50 million pound player would we have brought Carroll? You can't compare Liverpool's spending to Chelsea £200 million and City's £300 million net to buy the title we have only spent £40million net they have both been on a spending spree for years trying to get it right  and that list of Mancini have you seen their weekly wages £100,00plus and £200,000plus wages Redknapp was saying Adbayor is on £250,000 a week! 
    Not the transfer fees you need to look at but the weekly wages.

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  57. Even Chelsea now can't match them for wages!

    How the hell are Liverpool going to afford that long term when we still need to build a stadium?

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  58. i never said we could afford them, i am saying i would be happier paying the 200k a week and getting some value for money rather then paying 90k a week for next to nothing!

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  59. that took a couple of years as well to win!

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  60. Your a bit nasty aren't ya bit surprised Jaimie asn't blocked you! 
    A true fan would know we didn't win the league in 1985 we didn't win anything for the first time in years so the pressure was there on Kenny and he delivered the clubs first double in his first season! Something Shankly,Paisley or Fagan couldn't deliver!Do remember the 87/88 team won't you! Real fans knew why he stepped down after the 91 FA Cup game against Everton!
    Brought the league at Blackburn?He got them promoted first from Division 2 .
    You want to see a great man like King  Kenny crack up after all he did for the Hillsborough families, you should be ashamed of yourself and anyone that agrees with you.

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  61. chelsea spent a lot more than that

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  62. torres=£50mill     david luiz around £20mill
    70 mill on two flops of players that puts it in to perspective for me.

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  63. They spent £37 in 99/00 season I could add the other £91million they spent in the 05/06 season or the £87million they spent last season or the £47million they have spent this season as well . I was looking more at net spend then just out lay.The problem is when we spend big we still have to balance the books where as Chelsea and City didn't .

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  64. Got them promoted from Division 2 first. 

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  65. u guy are always looking out for who makes a mistake at Anfield thus players are over careful but out there we are ready to take consolation in the fact that we are away from home.

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  66. Robinho was signed by SGE and Johnson was signed by Hughes.

    Bellamy, Tevez, Adebayor and Robinho were all quality. Truly it is only 2 of Mancini's signings making a huge difference, and they are Yaya Toure and Silva.

    What's particularly significant about Silva's contribution this season is Downing was more effective for Villa and Henderson was more effective for Sunderland than Silva was for City last season. The question should not be whether these 2 players can perform but when.

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  67. That's harsh. I'll agree he wasted 35m, but for what he was worth, Adam has been bang for buck. Downing looks like a very slow starter and only came good for Villa in his second season. The 20 dumped on him might not be wasted yet.

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