10 Apr 2009

Why it's practically impossible for Liverpool to beat Chelsea at Stamford Bridge next week...

Liverpool ideally need to win by three clear goals against Chelsea next week in order to progress in the Champions League. It would be a fantastic achievement, but the club's utterly abject record at Stamford Bridge means it’s almost a statistical impossibility.

Let’s just look at the cold hard facts:

All time competitive games at Stamford Bridge (Since 1907)*
Played - 75
Won - 17
Drawn - 16
Lost – 42
Failure to win in 77% of competitive games.

Last 10 years

Played – 17
Won – 2
Drawn – 3
Lost – 12
Failure to win in 88% of competitive games.

Last 5 years
Played - 10
Won – 1
Drawn – 3
Lost – 6
Failure to win in 90% of competitive games.

Champions League only
Played - 4
Won - 0
Drawn - 2
Lost - 2
Failure to win in 100% of competitive games.

Notice a pattern here?

The most compelling statistics are yet to come: In 102 years of competitive games at Stamford Bridge, Liverpool have:

1. Only beaten Chelsea by 3 clear goals TWICE (5-2 win in 1989 and 3-0 win in 1974)

2. Only ever scored 3 or more goals THREE TIMES (A 3-3 draw in 1987, the 5-2 thrashing in 1989 and the 3-0 in 1974).

Okay, Liverpool have beaten Chelsea at the Bridge this season, but that was only the 3rd time in 20 years!

Fans will no doubt point the 4-1 hammering of Man United at Old Trafford as some kind of evidence that Liverpool can do it, but such results are the exception, not the rule.

Taking everything into consideration, including Chelsea’s stunning home record over the last few years, I don’t think it’ s an exaggeration to suggest that - barring some kind of miracle - the probability that Liverpool will beat Chelsea by three clear goals next week is practically zero.

This is not negativity, it is realism.

Liverpool got their comeuppance at Anfield after weeks of smug, self-satisfied boasting in the press. Hopefully, Rafa and the players have learned their lesson, and the early exit from the CL will allow the team to *quietly* set about the task of trying to win the league.

Of course, it would be amazing if Liverpool could produce a miracle next week!

Realistically though, we all know it's never going to happen.

*Statistics courtesy of LFChistory.net


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