I've maintained since the start of the season that Liverpool can finish in the top 4. The question is how can that be achieved given the patchy first few months of the season? This article is an attempt to illustrate - with examples - how I believe Liverpool can make it into the top 4 by the end of the season.
You'll have to bear with me as I outline my argument (!). It's quite lengthy, and it will hurt your brain (well, it hurt mine that's for sure!)
PRELIMINARY NOTES
The first table below shows the following:
* Section A: Liverpool’s league results so far this season compared to the first 16 results from the same period last season (i.e. August until December)
* Section B: What happens if Liverpool continue the first 3.5 months of this season’s form for the rest of the season. I’ve calculated the results based on current win/lose/draw percentages.
* Section C: Illustrates what would’ve happened if - in December 2009 - Rafa Benitez’s team had continued its form at the time for the rest of the season.
* Section D: My view of how Liverpool can make up the extra points in order to achieve a final total of 68 points, which may be enough to secure 4th place.
The second table shows the following:
* Section E: Remaining fixtures + Results required (as per Section D) to be in with a chance of 4th place.
Table 1: Securing 4th place
KEY POINTS
* Re Section C: Last season, Benitez's team finished with 63 points, which is 8 points MORE than what the total would have been if the form from the first 4 months of the season had been maintained till the end. This shows that it's highly probable that Liverpool will obtain more than 52 points by the end of this season (52 = the amount of points the club would achieve if current form stayed the same till the end of the season, as per Section B)
* Re Section B: If Hodgson's Liverpool DID just continue with the same form for the rest of this season, the end of season stats would look like this:
* Played - 38
* Won - 14
* Drew – 10
* Lost – 14
* Points – 52 (Current total of 22 + Potential total of 30).
The last time Liverpool lost 14 league games in a season was 2004-5, in Rafa Benitez’s first year, when the end of season stats were similar to the above:
* Played - 38
* Won - 17
* Drew – 7
* Lost – 14
* Points – 58
Whilst I concede that a final points total of 52 is possible, historically speaking, I don’t think it’s very probable at all.
What needs to change from this point onwards?
It goes without saying that the club needs to improve its away form (!).
* As illustrated in Section B, if nothing changes for the rest of the season, Liverpool will end up with 52 points, which is nowhere near enough for 4th place.
* Continuing current away form, Liverpool will end up with 7 more defeats and 3 draws. There is huge potential to turn some of these draws and defeats into wins.
* Continuing current home form, Liverpool will end up with 7 more wins and 3 draws. There is definitely scope to turn a couple of the draws into victories.
How many extra points required to be in with a chance of 4th place?
In the last 10 years, the average total required to achieve 4th place is 68 points. That means Liverpool need another 16 points (i.e. 5 wins and 1 draw) on top of the 30 points they would achieve if things continued in exactly the same way for the remainder of the season. This is totally achievable in my view. As Section D above shows:
* Turn 4 of the 7 potential away defeats into wins = 12 points
* Turn 1 of the potential away draws into a win = 2 points
* Turn 1 of the potential home draws into a win = 2 points
* Total of 16 extra points.
This would produce the following final stats:
* Played - 38
* Won - 20
* Drew – 8
* Lost – 10
* Points – 68
Is this not achievable?
* At present, Liverpool achieves an average of 1.4 points per game. To reach what I’ve outlined above, this would need to improve by 0.6 to an average of 2 points per game for the rest of the season.
* At the same point in December last year, Benitez’s team had 24 points, and was averaging 1.5 points per game. By the end of the season, the team had obtained a further 39 points, giving a final total of 63 points. This equates to an increase of from 1.5 points per game to 1.77 points per game (+ 0.27 over the rest of the season).
* This is not a huge increase and explains why Liverpool finished so low in the table. However, his does not mean that Hodgson’s team cannot improve on this.
FIXTURES: Where will the extra points come from?
In Section D above, I outlined how Liverpool could pick up extra points. Below is a tale with all the club's remining fixtures, and my opinion of where the extra points can come from.
* Basically, from this point onwards, Liverpool need to achieve a minimum of 46 out of 66 points to be in with a chance of securing 4th place.
* I’ll concede that when it comes to away form, 20 points from 33 is a tall order. However, it is not impossible! Plus, there are various permutations, for example: if the club wins more home games then the need for away wins decreases; Liverpool could also lose two of the away games I’ve marked as draws in the table, BUT an extra win would fill that gap (with a point to spare).
Anything is possible in football. Liverpool has shown clear signs of improvement over the last couple of months, both with results and performances. As we’ve seen already this season, every team is dropping points, including our challengers for 4th place, Spurs and Man City.
I truly believe Liverpool can do it, and a win against Newcastle this weekend would be a great way to kick things off.
Jaimie Kanwar
You'll have to bear with me as I outline my argument (!). It's quite lengthy, and it will hurt your brain (well, it hurt mine that's for sure!)
PRELIMINARY NOTES
The first table below shows the following:
* Section A: Liverpool’s league results so far this season compared to the first 16 results from the same period last season (i.e. August until December)
* Section B: What happens if Liverpool continue the first 3.5 months of this season’s form for the rest of the season. I’ve calculated the results based on current win/lose/draw percentages.
* Section C: Illustrates what would’ve happened if - in December 2009 - Rafa Benitez’s team had continued its form at the time for the rest of the season.
* Section D: My view of how Liverpool can make up the extra points in order to achieve a final total of 68 points, which may be enough to secure 4th place.
The second table shows the following:
* Section E: Remaining fixtures + Results required (as per Section D) to be in with a chance of 4th place.
Table 1: Securing 4th place
KEY POINTS
* Re Section C: Last season, Benitez's team finished with 63 points, which is 8 points MORE than what the total would have been if the form from the first 4 months of the season had been maintained till the end. This shows that it's highly probable that Liverpool will obtain more than 52 points by the end of this season (52 = the amount of points the club would achieve if current form stayed the same till the end of the season, as per Section B)
* Re Section B: If Hodgson's Liverpool DID just continue with the same form for the rest of this season, the end of season stats would look like this:
* Played - 38
* Won - 14
* Drew – 10
* Lost – 14
* Points – 52 (Current total of 22 + Potential total of 30).
The last time Liverpool lost 14 league games in a season was 2004-5, in Rafa Benitez’s first year, when the end of season stats were similar to the above:
* Played - 38
* Won - 17
* Drew – 7
* Lost – 14
* Points – 58
Whilst I concede that a final points total of 52 is possible, historically speaking, I don’t think it’s very probable at all.
What needs to change from this point onwards?
It goes without saying that the club needs to improve its away form (!).
* As illustrated in Section B, if nothing changes for the rest of the season, Liverpool will end up with 52 points, which is nowhere near enough for 4th place.
* Continuing current away form, Liverpool will end up with 7 more defeats and 3 draws. There is huge potential to turn some of these draws and defeats into wins.
* Continuing current home form, Liverpool will end up with 7 more wins and 3 draws. There is definitely scope to turn a couple of the draws into victories.
How many extra points required to be in with a chance of 4th place?
In the last 10 years, the average total required to achieve 4th place is 68 points. That means Liverpool need another 16 points (i.e. 5 wins and 1 draw) on top of the 30 points they would achieve if things continued in exactly the same way for the remainder of the season. This is totally achievable in my view. As Section D above shows:
* Turn 4 of the 7 potential away defeats into wins = 12 points
* Turn 1 of the potential away draws into a win = 2 points
* Turn 1 of the potential home draws into a win = 2 points
* Total of 16 extra points.
This would produce the following final stats:
* Played - 38
* Won - 20
* Drew – 8
* Lost – 10
* Points – 68
Is this not achievable?
* At present, Liverpool achieves an average of 1.4 points per game. To reach what I’ve outlined above, this would need to improve by 0.6 to an average of 2 points per game for the rest of the season.
* At the same point in December last year, Benitez’s team had 24 points, and was averaging 1.5 points per game. By the end of the season, the team had obtained a further 39 points, giving a final total of 63 points. This equates to an increase of from 1.5 points per game to 1.77 points per game (+ 0.27 over the rest of the season).
* This is not a huge increase and explains why Liverpool finished so low in the table. However, his does not mean that Hodgson’s team cannot improve on this.
FIXTURES: Where will the extra points come from?
In Section D above, I outlined how Liverpool could pick up extra points. Below is a tale with all the club's remining fixtures, and my opinion of where the extra points can come from.
* Basically, from this point onwards, Liverpool need to achieve a minimum of 46 out of 66 points to be in with a chance of securing 4th place.
* I’ll concede that when it comes to away form, 20 points from 33 is a tall order. However, it is not impossible! Plus, there are various permutations, for example: if the club wins more home games then the need for away wins decreases; Liverpool could also lose two of the away games I’ve marked as draws in the table, BUT an extra win would fill that gap (with a point to spare).
Anything is possible in football. Liverpool has shown clear signs of improvement over the last couple of months, both with results and performances. As we’ve seen already this season, every team is dropping points, including our challengers for 4th place, Spurs and Man City.
I truly believe Liverpool can do it, and a win against Newcastle this weekend would be a great way to kick things off.
Jaimie Kanwar
I think you mixed up the tables in section A, it should be the other way round.
ReplyDeleteThe points are not correct in section A.
ReplyDeleteYou just don't get it do you?
ReplyDeleteRoy doesn't even TRY and win away from home. And the 4 home wins we've had in 4 home games have come as a result of playing 4 teams in the bottom 5 of the form table, nothing to do with a change in tactics from Roy. He is not capable of beating any of the top teams away from home and barely beats any of them at home. He gets outmuscled by the teams around him hence why he at best finishes 6th or 7th at best and not 4th or 5th.
This is a more likely picture:
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Roy-Hodgson-is-Officially-the-worst-manager-LFC-have-ever-had/159042870784083
Very good article, very clear, precise and fair. I would very interested and appreciate your views on 3 players you would consider top January buys for LFC to achieve these results / 4th spot. Please consider 1) only players potentialy avilable 2) that fit NESV "apparent" critieria 3) that you were the manager not Roy. Thank you.
ReplyDeleteGood analysis even if you have mixed up some of your figures, however i think there is a simpler way to look at it
ReplyDeleteSpurs and City are our rivals, out of the remaining 22 games we need to win 2 more than Spurs and 3 more than City, both have to come to Anfield
So yes we can, sadly though I can't see Roy getting enough points on the road
You're right - I changed Hodgson and Benitez over in the table at the last minute and forgot to move the points across. I've done that now. Thanks for spotting that :)
ReplyDeleteA couple of figures were in the wrong place but that has now been rectified.
ReplyDeleteTo say that Hodgson doesn't try to win away from home is utter nonsense - you're suggesting that he sends the team out to draw/try not to lose, and that is just not reality.
ReplyDeleteWhat happened in the past is not relevant here - Liverpool is a totally different ballgame to Fulham and Blackburn. Significantly better players = significantly improved chance of improving away form.
<span>Last season Liverpool didn't have too bad a start. It was only once the injuries kicked in that Liverpool started to drop from 3rd to 7th. And the season before they stayed between 1st and 3rd all season, which is where they would be now with a decent manager and without the injuries.
ReplyDelete- Roy is only just seeing the kind of injuries/absences that Rafa had last season, but still not to the same level. In this period his team has been down between 8th and 19th. Not only that but the form is EXACTLY the same as Fulham's last season. It could have even been the same as Blackburn's in 1998, but for us getting a lucky win at Bolton and then facing Chelsea in their worst fun of form for 20 years. And we'd be in 12th were it for not facing Villa in their worst run of form for 20 years.
- In all the seasons, Liverpool in the last 2, Fulham last season and Blackburn in 1998, where they were in November they ended up being in May. Don't confuse climbing from 19th to 8th in a matter of weeks as an assault on the top 4, it is simply Roy catching up after a dreadful start. We will finish between 7th and 11th, most likely 9th. The only way we will finish any higher is if Roy starts winning MORE than 1.4 points a game, and the only way he can do that is by winning more than 1 away game in 10, and he's NEVER been able to do that in 34 years of management. Rafa on the other hand, has proven he can win over 2 pts a game, and win the MAJORITY of his away games, facts that you have conveniently left out of you analysis. As usual.</span>
WTF - you regularly make excellent points. At present, everything you post is checked first, but if you can assure me you will not pepper your future posts with derogatory comments/insults, I will unban you. Fair?
ReplyDeleteyou haven't taken into account other teams results as they could drop points along the way which would potentially allow us to get a smaller percentage of points gained.
ReplyDeletebtw on a total separate note i love reading these articles as they give me great insight but man you have WAY too much time on your hands!
While this is all very impressive with all the statistical comparison and countless eventualities, has all of your hard work revealed anything that wasn't already blindingly obvious? How about I simplify all of it for you:
ReplyDeleteQ. What do Liverpool have to do to secure 4th place
A. Earn more points than the teams above them.
While all these stats based on previous years might be interesting to your average train spotter they have absolutely no bearing on what will happen this season and are therefore wholly irrelevent to the question... Sorry to burst your bubble.
That's a common misconception. Why do I have 'way to much time on my hands'? I work from home; it's easy for me to write about LFC while I work. I don't have to commute, so I have extra time. I also write very fast. I have my own personal database of stats so everything I use just requires cutting and pasting;. This article took me less than an hour to put together, so not much time at all.
ReplyDelete3players? I'd go for shawcross(young can only get better potential resale value), kiesuke Honda 25 very experienced very talented and would make us a lot of money commercially in Asia, and Antonio cassano, very talented but bit of a bad boy, florentine currently in the process of cancelling his contract so a free agent, only wages/signing fees to pay for...very good striker
ReplyDeletePersonally i cannot see why we cannot win the league. We are only 10 points behind arsenal who are top. 10 points is a gap teams have pulled back before with less games so why cant we do it. lets say we win all our games before now and xmas, sign suarez and a couple of other wc players and go on an unbeaten run. stranger things have happened!
ReplyDeleteLiverpool **MUST** finish above the team in 5th place to finish in 4th place. End of.
ReplyDeleteAny other comments are mere conjecture and not a "must".
So bringeth the end of today's logic lesson, please donate your lunch money to Assange's defence fund
I admire your optimism :) And I agree; 10 points is not an insurmountable barrier.
ReplyDeleteI have to vehemently disagree about Luis Suarez though; he is a cheat, and I would feel sick to see him in a Liverpool shirt. And if Hodgson signed a blatant cheat like that, my support for him would go right out the window.
Liverpool **MUST** finish above the team in 5th place to finish in 4th place.<span></span>
ReplyDeleteNo shit :-P The question is HOW does Liverpool achieve that, and this is what the article is about.
Loving the optimism ronaldo...that's the spirit 8-)
ReplyDeleteSorry...rolando.... =-X
ReplyDeletelol apologies didn't mean to insult you.. never knew u had a whole database full of stats very impressive stuff! like i said in your previous column not sure if u saw it or not but on field i like roy a lot i really like his tactics and he gets the best out of his players but on the other hand like i said previously he says very stupid stuff ie "were not blessed with centre halves" "a draw would of been a good result" just silly to say that. I sincerely hope he can get us back on track and i belive he is the man for the job
ReplyDeleteSo basically we've won 37.5% of games so far this season, and lost 6 already, but we need to win 15 of our remaining 22 games - which is almoist double that, 64% - and make sure we dont lose any more than 4 of those remaining 22 fixtures.... knowing that we still need to go to stamford bridge, the emirates, villa park and also play united, city and spurs at anfield, not to mention the much higher quality of lower table sides this season - we're left in a position that means we cant afford to make any mistakes whatsoever, and we could also do with a fair bit of luck along the way. I remember this feeling last season - "if we can just win spurs and city loses to them and villa draws with them we'll move up to 5th!" - but i learnt my lesson, and now im alot more content focusing on one result at a time, regardless of what our rivals get. Although - i dont believe well need 68 points to get to fourth this season because of the top teams all dropping points.
ReplyDeleteSo basically we've won 37.5% of games so far this season, and lost 6 already, but we need to win 14 of our remaining 22 games - which is almoist double that, 64% - and make sure we dont lose any more than 4 of those remaining 22 fixtures.... knowing that we still need to go to stamford bridge, the emirates, villa park and also play united, city and spurs at anfield, not to mention the much higher quality of lower table sides this season - we're left in a position that means we cant afford to make any mistakes whatsoever, and we could also do with a fair bit of luck along the way. I remember this feeling last season - "if we can just win spurs and city loses to them and villa draws with them we'll move up to 5th!" - but i learnt my lesson, and now im alot more content focusing on one result at a time, regardless of what our rivals get. Although - i dont believe well need 68 points to get to fourth this season because of the top teams all dropping points.<span>
ReplyDelete</span>
I did not see a question, I saw, "What Liverpool **must** do to finish in the top 4 this season". I gave the obious and concise answer. You could edit the title of your article to add a "How" and a "could" or "should iyv" though :) In summary, "must" is the wrong word to use in this instance. Yours sincerely, John (LFC supporter extraordinaire)PS. When are you going to appologize to Pepé?PPS. When you do, I can forgive you and move on. I want to move on, but can't with that article hanging over Pepé's reputation like a stinky poo.
ReplyDeleteMan, there is no reason with a couple of other results going our way that we cannot be in the top 4 by New Year's Day..!!!
ReplyDelete15 points up for grabs from our fixtures between now and then and from what I've seen half the Man City stars don't really like turning up when they play in the cold, so there's a real chance they at least could slip up over the festive season..!!!
I see your point about Hodgson's comments but fans are making far too big a deal over them. Whether we like it or not, Liverpool is not longer a *regular* top 4 side, and Hodgson can see that. It's much better to under-promise and over-deliver than to over-promise and under-deliver.
ReplyDeleteLiverpool (especially the players) have been guilt of the latter too much over the years; I'd rather hear realism than the usual ging-ho 'I guarantee 4th place' nonsense.
I see your point about Hodgson's comments but fans are making far too big a deal over them. Whether we like it or not, Liverpool is not longer a *regular* top 4 side, and Hodgson can see that. It's much better to under-promise and over-deliver than to over-promise and under-deliver.
ReplyDeleteLiverpool (especially the players) have been guilt of the latter too much over the years; I'd rather hear realism than the usual ging-ho 'I guarantee 4th place' nonsense.
Good point, nextman. I also think it's likely that less than 68 points will secure 5th place this season, which could make the task slightly more achievable.
ReplyDeleteyes Suarez is a cheat but surely all (well most) footballers are cheats. i dont think we are in a position to pass up on world class players because they are prepared to deliberatly handle the ball. Let's be honest Gerrard is a cheat, he dives all the time, carra is always grabbing onto players shirts. If he handled the ball to stop Man U winning No.19 and winning it for us would you care?...neither would I!
ReplyDeleteI'm not sure we'd ever sign anyone jaimie if not having ever cheated in the past is a condition of signing someone, every player to some extent has done it, is even raising a hand calling for the throw in to go our way when the player knows otherwise not cheating of a kind...? What he did in the world cup was wrong( even more so it was avoidable the ball was heading right for his face he didn't need to put his hand up) some people say the ball going right at his face was a natural reaction, others say what he did was what anyone else in that split second thinking heat of the moment would do...whatever the reasons, it doesn't mean he is a regular cheat (I'm thinking ronaldo Drogba etc etc) what I'm trying to say is do you not believe in second chances?
ReplyDeleteIf he handled the ball to stop Man U winning No.19 and winning it for us would you care?<span></span>
ReplyDeleteYes, I would care! It's not fair, and I will never condone any form of cheating, even if it means our rivals suffer. I would rather United lost no 19 fair and square than through cheating. Yes, Gerrard has cheated in the past, and I've called him on it many times. I personally don't care how good a player is - if he's a brazen cheat, then I don't want him at Anfield. We do not need the cheat's mindset pervading Liverpool any more than it already has.
Apologise to Reina? When Hell freeses over, thaws, and then freezes over again.
ReplyDeleteThere is no need to apologise; my articles on him have been totally fair. He made his comments and they are open to criticism.
Then Jammie, your reputation is in tatters imv. Your selective use of quotes to libel a Liverpool player is beyond the pale. If you have a shred of integrity, you should be ashamed and apologies, if not, your hypocricy is clear for all to see.
ReplyDeleteAt home we are a very good side, competative to the best in the league. So was Fulhams home for under Roy. The problem is if we want to be regarded as a good side we need to win away from home, it is as simple as this. If we dont win away from home you will not achieve anything. Wht we need to do is start to ensure we win against all the middle of the road teams 6th and below. When we come up against the better sides at least get a draw. If we do this and the better sides slip up against the poorer sides then we have a chance. the problem is liverpool are playing catch up and need wins away from home. No amount of statistics can prove anything about what may happen in the future. What they can prove is that we need to do better away from home, this is where our hope of 4th position lies, if we dont get the results we will not finish 4th.
ReplyDeleteThere's standard everyday cheating (shirt-pulling; feigning injury etc) and then there's a whole other level of cheating where a player deliberately tries to change the outcome of the game (diving for a penalty; handling on the line etc).
ReplyDeleteI don't thik every player would deliberately handle on the line like Suarez; it takes a certain kind of mindset to do that. These are the worst kind of cheats, and Liverpool should steer clear.
Totally agree. having played football myself to a fairly high standard i will openly admit i have cheated on occasion, not premeditated just spare of the moment stuff. it happens. Personally i hated Maradona but should he have come to Liverpool shortly after the '86 world cup i would have been a happy man. look at the way Manc forgave Ronaldo after the Euro's when he got Rooney sent off. cheating is part and parcel of the game...unfortunatly its all about winning and i think suarez would help us do that more often than we are currently doing!
ReplyDeleteI doubt Suarez would come in and make a difference straight away. He'd have to adapt to the league, and we don't have time for that. We need players who will come in and do the job *now*. For me, that means players alreayd playing in the premier league, or players who've had experience and can slot in straight away.
ReplyDeleteI know u won't like me for saying this, please don't ban me! But while I'm not saying what he done was right, but in my eyes I see cheating as deliberately trying to con the ref, like u say, diving for pens etc. But personally and again not saying it right but what I think he done was took a calculated risk, he never protested about what he done, never tried to deceive, he always knew what he was doing and the consequences of it, I don't see the player enough to know if his game, whilst an excellent player, is based on diving and the kind of thing above, but if we take that one incident alone and the circumstances around it I can understand (not condone) why he done it
ReplyDeletelike Carlton Cole?
ReplyDeleteAs usual, a high level of discussion on this site. Thank you. One thought. Your statistical analysis, as usual, is interesting and thought provoking. My conecern is with the 'unmeasurables' of attitude and ambition. I work with a committed Man U fan who travels everywhere to watch them. But he is not a Liverpool hater. He likes it when LFC are doing well. He enjoys the rivalry between the clubs, and when Liverpool are playing in Europe he watches on TV and wants us to win.
ReplyDeleteWhen we signed Poulson and Konchesky, he was surprised. He told me that Man U fans he knows were laughing in disbelief. The recent attempts to sign Carlton Cole summed it up for him. He describes them as premiership players but very ordinary ones - not the sort of players Liverpool should be in for.
I'm not a fan of the current manager, but I had an open mind when he came. Now, I'm convinced that his strategy is one of too much safety. To gain the extra points you identify we need, then the approach has to be to much more adventurous than we have seen to date. I don't feel Hodgson can take this approach away from home. The problem is that we don't really have the personnel for this. I know it is a bit of a broken drum, but a creative player who was fully fit was allowed to go on loan to Juve, while money was wasted on others who are not up to the mark. The attempt to get Cole, to me, still shows questionable judgement.
I have to agree with WTF? Despite his crass nickname. If you're going to take Liverpool's historical perfomance inta account when considering a push for fourth then you should do the same with RH's record. The odds are stacked against your wager for fourth - IMO.
ReplyDeleteA cheat who got punished by the full extent of the law. It isn't his fault Ghana couldn't covert the penalty. I believe anyone in his situation would have done the same thing, it is something that just happens. I wouldn't want him at Liverpool though, as he isn't good enough
ReplyDeletesaurez is hero...
ReplyDeletehe sacrificed himself for the team... got sent off.. so had his punishment...
ghana had a penalty which they missed...
part of the game !!!! love it..
What! *must* do.... 66 points available 22 already in the bag (ok not as much as many expected). It's ok to be a realist, yeah! but we should be looking for as many points as possible.
ReplyDelete52, 58 or 68 what about 88? Wishful thinking but, it's near enough, been done before.
Get the troops going, not the manager, invest in our position now and push on. Momentum is in our favour, just start believing.
The ride will be a wild one. Let's see where it takes us.
Jamie,
ReplyDeleteRegardless of whether i agree with your various analytical articles or not ( though i usually do) i have to commend you on the thoroughness of your work. Keep it up mate!
Nick.
Good Article Jamie
ReplyDeleteIMO We need some level of consistency before we talk about the top four, given how results have gone so far we can win well and look like we are getting alot better then lose against inferior opposition the very next game playing shambolic football, Assuming we can maintain a level of performance a fourth place finish can be done, infact we could finish above fourth place. The Variables as I see them are as follows 1) Away form Improves, 2) Player Injury levels reduce or do not worsen. 3) Passion as shown in the Villa match is maintained. 4) 4-4-2 Is deployed away from home against inferior opposition. I also believe we need more pace at CB, and we need to get more bodies in the box and get them there faster than we do.
WHAT WE HAVE LACKED FOR MORE THAN A DECADE IS CONSISTENCY. That one issue gets under my skin, on our day we have always had a real chance of beating any team in the World, the problem is we do not or cannot maintain form levels.
Then Jaimie, your reputation as a fair and honest commentator is in tatters imv.
ReplyDeleteYour selective use of quotes to libel a Liverpool player is beyond the pale.
If you have a shred of integrity, you should be ashamed and apologies, if not, your hypocricy in your article as it remains is clear for all to see imv.
clear for all to see.
What you opine they **MUST** do is just a few in an infinatly long lost of possibilities.
ReplyDeleteThey could do it in a way you suggest, they could do in another. There's no **MUST** about it.
Your use of "must" brooks no alternatives, and therein lies your error.
Some may read you "must" as pomposity, I read it as the wrong choice of words.
Thanks for the kind words, Nick. Much appreciated.
ReplyDeleteHodgson has given himself and the team a fantastic opportunity to kick on progress this season witht he recent results/performances. No need to go over the top and suggest we are a comlpete team or anything, but having reverted to 4-4-2 in recent weeks, i think it is clear to all that this formation gives the team a lot more ooportunities to create and score goals, and if he sticks with this over the upcoming Xmas period, there is a real possibility of stringing a number of wins together. It also gives him a far clearrer picture going into the Jan transfer window. He then knows that natural wingers are needed as well as striking options and a CB possibly (not saying all positions in Jan, but these are the ones to look at).
ReplyDeleteI just hope we can finally use this momentum and produce some decent results away from home. 4-4-2 away at newcastle is a must, possibly with J.COle and Gerrard to start from the bench!
Then Jaimie, your reputation as a fair and honest commentator is in tatters imv.
ReplyDeleteYour selective use of quotes to libel a Liverpool player is beyond the pale.
If you have a shred of integrity, you should be ashamed and apologies, if not, your hypocricy in your article as it remains is clear for all to see imv.
JOhn - if you post that once more I will ban you.
ReplyDeleteYour article was not totaly fair, that is a lie.
ReplyDeleteYou did not link to original interview. You selectively quoted from the interview to suit your agenda.
It's easy: Get rid of Hodgson and start playing football!!!
ReplyDeleteThe question which remains is why the hell are there so called fans who are crucifying Roy for being given the oppertunity of being LFC's manager? FFS what has become of those who call themselves fans. Whoever expected him to walk into the job with a magic wand obviously do not want to understand how difficult the situation was.
ReplyDeleteThis is what Roy went through when he was appointed...
First of all we finished 7th last season so immediately there was pressure on him to do better, H & G made life absolute hell for us while trying to sell the club, fans were bringing the club into disrepute, most of our first team were still on holiday after the world cup, he had to make sure the likes of Gerrard & Torres were going to stay, Javier M the argentine A hole decided to jump ship and had very little time to replace him. I can add a few more but the main thing he had to put up with after his appointment was being branded a yes man.
I want to see Roy succeed because clearly then LFC will succeed so supporting him IMO even if he was not my first choice to replace Rafa is the only right thing to do. That is the way it has always been at this club and that is to support the manager when he starts the job and not to call for his head after 5 months but because he is a referred to as a yes man the bandwagon need to stand together making our manager a laughing stock to suite their own agenda when all he is doing is trying his best to improve on the disaster of last season which was never going to be easy with what our club has been through recently not even for any other manager who might have got the job instead of Roy.
I gave Rafa full support when he joined the club, it was the right thing to do. He had a pathetic first season in the EPL and I still supported him. Nothing has changed for me, I have supported every manager and cannot actually believe the utter nonsense which is being throw at Roy's face. It is disgraceful, cowardly and wrong.
Some of our fans are lowdown pathetic, they obviously thought Roy took the job on just for shits and giggles. I for one hope he is given a decent chance by our new owners and also hope that January gives Roy the oppertunity to bring in a few more players of his own to make his style work a little bit better. 4th is not impossible to reach and 3 more top players in the window and 4th becomes that much easier.
The question which remains is why the hell are there so called fans who are crucifying Roy for being given the oppertunity of being LFC's manager? FFS what has become of those who call themselves fans. Whoever expected him to walk into the job with a magic wand obviously do not want to understand how difficult the situation was.
ReplyDeleteThis is what Roy went through when he was appointed...
First of all we finished 7th last season so immediately there was pressure on him to do better, H & G made life absolute hell for us while trying to sell the club, fans were bringing the club into disrepute, most of our first team were still on holiday after the world cup, he had to make sure the likes of Gerrard & Torres were going to stay, Javier M the argentine A hole decided to jump ship and had very little time to replace him. I can add a few more but the main thing he had to put up with after his appointment was being branded a yes man.
I want to see Roy succeed because clearly then LFC will succeed so supporting him IMO even if he was not my first choice to replace Rafa is the only right thing to do. That is the way it has always been at this club and that is to support the manager when he starts the job and not to call for his head after 5 months but because he is a referred to as a yes man the bandwagon need to stand together making our manager a laughing stock to suite their own agenda when all he is doing is trying his best to improve on the disaster of last season which was never going to be easy with what our club has been through recently not even for any other manager who might have got the job instead of Roy.
I gave Rafa full support when he joined the club, it was the right thing to do. He had a pathetic first season in the EPL and I still supported him. Nothing has changed for me, I have supported every manager and cannot actually believe the utter nonsense which is being throw at Roy's face. It is disgraceful, cowardly and wrong.
Some of our fans are lowdown pathetic, they obviously thought Roy took the job on just for shits and giggles. I for one hope he is given a decent chance by our new owners and also hope that January gives Roy the oppertunity to bring in a few more players of his own to make his style work a little bit better. 4th is not impossible to reach and 3 more top players in the window and 4th becomes that much easier.
The question which remains is why the hell are there so called fans who are crucifying Roy for being given the oppertunity of being LFC's manager? FFS what has become of those who call themselves fans. Whoever expected him to walk into the job with a magic wand obviously do not want to understand how difficult the situation was.
ReplyDeleteThis is what Roy went through when he was appointed...
First of all we finished 7th last season so immediately there was pressure on him to do better, H & G made life absolute hell for us while trying to sell the club, fans were bringing the club into disrepute, most of our first team were still on holiday after the world cup, he had to make sure the likes of Gerrard & Torres were going to stay, Javier M the argentine A hole decided to jump ship and had very little time to replace him. I can add a few more but the main thing he had to put up with after his appointment was being branded a yes man.
I want to see Roy succeed because clearly then LFC will succeed so supporting him IMO even if he was not my first choice to replace Rafa is the only right thing to do. That is the way it has always been at this club and that is to support the manager when he starts the job and not to call for his head after 5 months but because he is a referred to as a yes man the bandwagon need to stand together making our manager a laughing stock to suite their own agenda when all he is doing is trying his best to improve on the disaster of last season which was never going to be easy with what our club has been through recently not even for any other manager who might have got the job instead of Roy.
I gave Rafa full support when he joined the club, it was the right thing to do. He had a pathetic first season in the EPL and I still supported him. Nothing has changed for me, I have supported every manager and cannot actually believe the utter nonsense which is being throw at Roy's face. It is disgraceful, cowardly and wrong.
Some of our fans are lowdown pathetic, they obviously thought Roy took the job on just for shits and giggles. I for one hope he is given a decent chance by our new owners and also hope that January gives Roy the oppertunity to bring in a few more players of his own to make his style work a little bit better. 4th is not impossible to reach and 3 more top players in the window and 4th becomes that much easier.
There is not a hope in hell of 4th,this is not negativity just plain common sense.The games start to come thick and fast so do injuries and suspensions,this is when Man City I believe will come into their own with their squad which is littered with class players in abundance.So if we are in direct competition with them for fourth and not even including Spurs we will not finish above City.And this is not having a go at RH,Rafa wouldnt be able to finish above City.In fact I believe there is more chance of finishing in front of one of the other 3 than their is in finishing above City.
ReplyDeleteJaimie, "I will never condone any form of cheating, even if it means our rivals suffer."
ReplyDeleteI'm OK with our rivals suffering, you carry on feeling different though ....
I am sorry to say, I can and do not share any form of optimism.
ReplyDeleteThe reality is that the current team is under-performing relative to the teams that have historically reached fourth and the only way to do it is by overhauling a points deficit that has only been achieved once before with a form that is comparable to great teams of the past.
Let me substantiate these points:
Charts 1 & 2 show the teams that ended in 4th spot since the 2000/01 league. It shows that:
a) On average, the teams that ended up in 4th spot had between 27 and 28 points after 16 games. There were only 2 times that this was not the case: Leeds in 2000/01 and Liverpool 2003/04
b) Other than Leeds in 2000/01, no team had to recover a 5 deficit from the 4th spot at this stage of the premiership.
To put the current team's performance in context, Chart 3 shows our team's cumulative points against the average of those who went onto achieve 4th. I will let you draw your own conclusions.... (note - the chart is mis-labelled. It is a 10 year average as it is all seasons since 2000/01 to 2009/10)
So what about the required form to reach the magic '68' points.
As the article outlines, we would need to increase our points per game from 1.375 to 2.09. This is a massive 50% increase!!!!
In the history of the league so far, there have only been 23 instances of a team achieving a point rate of 2.09 or above in the last 22 games of the season. They are:
<p>Arsenal (2001/02, 2003/04, 2004/05, 2007/08)
</p><p>
</p><p>Chelsea (every season since 2004/05)
</p><p>
</p><p>Leeds (2000)
</p><p>
</p><p>Man Utd (every season since 2001/02 apart from 2003/04)
</p><p>
</p><p>Liverpool (2001/02, 2005/06, 2007/08, 2008/09)
</p><p>
</p><p>Just to make this totally clear - our team needs to be getting results that would be considered to be close to championship winning form.
</p><p>
</p><p>
</p>
You would think so wouldn't you? Alas, due to the fact that Roy doesn't take any risks and just can't set his team up to win away from home, and the fact that he doesn't have the tactical nous to beat the teams better than him, the FACTS show that the past is very relevant. Hodgson could take control of Man Utd tomorrow and they'd end up finishing outside the top 4.
ReplyDeleteLook Jaimie, I can't make the following statement without you taking it as an insult - but you really need to spend longer than an hour on these things.
ReplyDeleteCassano is a disciplinary nightmare, Liverpool wouldn't suit his temperament
ReplyDeleteSuarez would be a welcome addition to Liverpool
ReplyDeleteHis hand ball infringed the laws of the game and he / his team was punished accordingly by the referee
Any professional player in the world would have done the same, given the situation
I would deem blatant handballs and blatant fouls as standard rule infringements
The more sinister cheating in football is simulation, feigning injury to get opponent in trouble, feigning injury to force referee to stop the game, sly elbows to opponents when jumping for headers, deliberately catching opponent when winning the ball. John Terry and Nigel de Jong excel at this tactic
Hi Scott,
ReplyDeleteAgree with you regarding Shawcross. the only worry is that as RS is ex Man U academy, SAF has first refusal. Considering Ferdinand's ongoing injury problems, and the poor form of Johnny Evans, I'm pretty sure he'd jump at the chance. (And lets be honest, he hardly going to refuse a chance to pinch a quality player form under our nose!)
With regards Honda. another quality player who could do really well for us. As you rightly point out is popularity in Japan could do wonders for raising our profile over there,...he'd certainly sell a few shirts, thats for sure! I know he's a versatile player, is he used primarily as an attacking midfielder at CSKA? From my recollection, he plays as a second striker too.
My concern would be where would our potential acquistion of KH put Joe Cole in terms of his LFC career. Presumably Honda would play in the 'hole' position that JC covets, with Gerrard / Merelies behind. That would just leave the left mid position for him. I've heard murmurings from some fans that we should maybe think of selling Cole, but I just don't think thats an option.
Hi Scott,
ReplyDeleteAgree with you regarding Shawcross. the only worry is that as RS is ex Man U academy, SAF has first refusal. Considering Ferdinand's ongoing injury problems, and the poor form of Johnny Evans, I'm pretty sure he'd jump at the chance. (And lets be honest, he hardly going to refuse a opportunity to pinch a quality player form under our nose!)
With regards Honda. another quality player who could do really well for us. As you rightly point out is popularity in Japan could do wonders for raising our profile over there,...he'd certainly sell a few shirts, thats for sure! I know he's a versatile player, is he used primarily as an attacking midfielder at CSKA? From my recollection, he plays as a second striker too.
My concern would be where would our potential acquistion of KH put Joe Cole in terms of his LFC career. Presumably Honda would play in the 'hole' position that JC covets, with Gerrard / Merelies behind. That would just leave the left mid position for him. I've heard murmurings from some fans that we should maybe think of selling Cole, but I just don't think thats an option.
Hi Scott,
ReplyDeleteAgree with you regarding Shawcross. the only worry is that as RS is ex Man U academy, SAF has first refusal. Considering Ferdinand's ongoing injury problems, and the poor form of Johnny Evans, I'm pretty sure he'd jump at the chance. (And lets be honest, he hardly going to refuse a opportunity to pinch a quality player form under our nose!)
With regards Honda. another quality player who could do really well for us. As you rightly point out his popularity in Japan could do wonders for raising our profile over there,...he'd certainly sell a few shirts, thats for sure! I know he's a versatile player, is he used primarily as an attacking midfielder at CSKA? From my recollection, he also plays in the second striker role too.
My concern would be where would our potential acquistion of KH put Joe Cole in terms of his LFC career. Presumably Honda would play in the 'hole' position that JC covets, with Gerrard / Merelies behind. That would just leave the left mid position for him. I've heard murmurings from some fans that we should maybe think of selling Cole, but I just don't think thats an option.
Hi Jaimie, Its funny the more you write about a topic you enjoy, the quicker you become. My first few posts on liverpool-kop took ages, now it just takes me a few minutes ! It's also very addictive :-D !
ReplyDeleteThe Roy Hodgson Brigade
ReplyDeleteI think this line from your post sums up how I feel!:
I want to see Roy succeed because clearly then LFC will succeed so supporting him IMO even if he was not my first choice to replace Rafa is the only right thing to do.
My personal attitude as a LFC fan is that RH is putting a lot of effort to improve things, and we are seeing the improvement in results and performances. He has tried very hard to move forward after the turmoil of the ownership wrangles. Lets be honest, NESV are a shrewd bunch of people, who are not afraid to dismiss mangers/coaches who are not up to scratch. If they felt that RH was that detrimental to their investment, I have no doubts that Roy would have been gone by now.
Roy has been completely backed by the owners and players. As a LFC fan, my personal choice is that he deserves my whole hearted support too!
Interesting opinons regarding City. My feeling is that the fractious nature of their squad may be their undoing. Incidents such as the Boetang vs Balotelli fight must be damaging to morale. Figure in the incessent complaining of players like Adebayor and it seems like a recipe for disaster! I'm not talking total capitulation, but I don't think this is their year. In my opinion Spurs represent more of a threat, although I think their EPL performances could be suffer as a result of their progress in the Champion League.
ReplyDeleteExcellent post Hmmm
ReplyDeleteI don't share the optimism either. I would love to get 4th place, but unfortunately the poor start we had means it is highly unlikely we'll achieve it, unless there are some very strange results on other games. I think 5th or 6th at best.
JK, using you reasoning in another article that the league has got better since 2004/05, and on the basis that there are teams such as Spurs and Man City who have not only improved but possibly surpassed us, it is probably even harder to get 4th place. From 2005/06 to 2009/10 the average points total for 4th place has actually gone up to 70. On that basis we'd need another 48 points out of a possible 66 points to get 4th place, which means we need 2.18 points per game from our remaining 22 games.
So even if we continue our current home form, 2.125 points per game, for the remaining 22 games, which is highly unlikely considering our current away form is 0.625 points per game, we#d stilll only get 47 points, which wouldn't be enough to get 4th based on the average 4th place points for the last 5 seasons.
Honda can play as main striker second striker central mid in the hole and either wing, in my opinion the more options the better, there's always room in the squad for players of that quality
ReplyDeleteSent from my iPhone
On 8 Dec 2010, at 21:59, "Echo" <js-kit-m2c-hhfedmlhe6tgp56ptj4srb1afjr0hbenbag3en6q8l2ofgpf9uqg> wrote:
</js-kit-m2c-hhfedmlhe6tgp56ptj4srb1afjr0hbenbag3en6q8l2ofgpf9uqg>
I think that the fact that the champions will probably have less points than usual may well mean that the teams in 4th and 5th have more points than usual. It may take more than 40 points to stay up this year as well. Tottenham in 5th is as high as we can get, in my opinion, Cannot see us making up 7 points on City, Man Utd, Chelsea and Arsenal. Strangely, the way they are going, Chelsea look the most likely to fall back, but then they will recover again and leave us behind. We have to win virtually every game against the teams out of the top 5 now. Maybe a couple of draws, but we probably need to go and win at places like Sunderland now.
ReplyDeleteyou said we had been in league decline for a long time, well two season ago we finish second and if you look at Rafa record in PL apart from his last year, we continously improved from the season before
ReplyDelete* Re Section C: Last season, Benitez's team finished with 63 points, which is 8 points MORE than what the total would have been if the form from the first 4 months of the season had been maintained till the end. This shows that it's HIGHLY PROBABLE that Liverpool will obtain more than 52 points by the end of this season (52 = the amount of points the club would achieve if current form stayed the same till the end of the season, as per Section B)<span></span>
ReplyDeleteActually Jaimie, it doesn't show this at all. It simply shows that 1 team out of 20 in the premier league improved their form. I understand what you are trying to say - but this particular analysis is wrong. You could achieve your goal in two ways: A) Look back over a period of years, and see if their form improved.. or B) Look at every single team over the course of period of time and look to see how their form changed during the course of the season. Just because Liverpool did it once, does not mean statistically it will happen again. For someone who argues every single point using stats, I'm a bit surprised you didn't catch this.
* Re Section C: Last season, Benitez's team finished with 63 points, which is 8 points MORE than what the total would have been if the form from the first 4 months of the season had been maintained till the end. This shows that it's HIGHLY PROBABLE that Liverpool will obtain more than 52 points by the end of this season (52 = the amount of points the club would achieve if current form stayed the same till the end of the season, as per Section B)<span></span>
ReplyDeleteActually Jaimie, it doesn't show this at all. It simply shows that 1 team out of 20 in the premier league improved their form. I understand what you are trying to say - but this particular analysis is wrong. You could achieve your goal in two ways: A) Look back over a period of years, and see if their form improved.. or B) Look at every single team over the course of period of time and look to see how their form changed during the course of the season. Just because Liverpool did it once, does not mean statistically it will happen again. For someone who argues every single point using stats, I'm a bit surprised you didn't catch this.
Jaimie,
ReplyDeleteThanks for the analysis. What it's made very clear, unfortunately, is that we have no chance of making 4th place.
Kraken
Let's concentrate on not getting relegated by RH for now...keep doing what he did on the first 16 games, ie get another 22 points, will keep us safe with 44 points with 6 games to spare, that will be an achievement for RH
ReplyDeletejust trying to derive a conclusion from this article, next to impossible. its just plain inconclusive and it reminds me of championship manager. its fantasy football. seriosly five other teams have the same if not more chance of finishing 4th! im not trying to be a wet blanket, but its sad that we LFC have been reduced to consulting ouija table to determine whether we'l finish FOURTH! FOURTH! its not even like spurs and mcity will be watching from the sidelines?
ReplyDeletePersonally if fourth comes il be happy, but for me the next two season is about rebuilding and laying foundation for future. thats why we need the right management structure players and coach, and from the look of things we still have a lot of work ahead,. hopefully manegement is sorted, big question mark on coach and majority of players..
I'll take that into consideration for the next article I write.
ReplyDelete(Not). :-D
<span>Not to worry RH, you still got 15 games to get another 22 points...maybe by then we can judge you, after 32 games...</span>
ReplyDelete<span>What a sorry state we are in now, level on points with 3 newly promoted clubs, Newcastle, Blackpool and West Brom...some interesting facts to go along, we already lose 2 against them and nearly draw with West Brom at Anfield! WAY TO GO RH!!!<span>
</span></span>
I've changed my mind recently and think the guy should get to the end of the season, but there is no doubt in my mind that 4th is gone and Europe is not a certainty. There's nothing to suggest that Hodgson can muster 20 points away from home between now and the end of the season. I can even see Blackpool doing the double over us. As far as I can see, this season is to be written off and things have to change next year. The only problem about giving him till June is the January transfer window, hopefully, Comolli's presence will mean some continuity and people not joining under one manager and then being surplus under the next. Hodgson has a 33% success rate with his signings so far, so giving him money in January is risky. Apart from being a write off, this season is a wasted opportunity, I can see Man City in 2nd place, without being great, Chelsea floundering and Man Utd and Arsenal being average. As you say, with 9 points from the games against the promoted sides, Liverpool would be 4 points off the top. And that's before you think about draws with Sunderland and Wigan and a loss at Stoke. Anyone can lose at Man City, Man Utd, and draw with Arsenal, but the points dropped against some of these teams are unforgiveable. So, by beating the promoted teams and getting 6 points against Sunderland, Wigan and Stoke, we'd be level with City. It's hardly an impossible sequence of results, is it? What a waste of a year.
ReplyDeleteIf only things were so simple. How can we calculate motivation of our players and opposition players alike? A team facing a Liverpool side, on the up and on a winning streak would most likely go down easier? However, at the moment, everyone feels they can beat us. Giving them extra confidence etc.
ReplyDeleteWho motivates players to do better? With this manager and his terrible away record - 1 win out of 27 - no chance of turning it around. With a new technical director in place, we need a new coach with a different mind set; football on display would be more creative and hopefully we could play well away from home. IMO.
If only things were so simple. How can we calculate motivation of our players and opposition players alike? A team facing a Liverpool side, on the up and on a winning streak would most likely go down easier? However, at the moment, everyone feels they can beat us. Giving them extra confidence etc.
ReplyDeleteWho motivates players to do better? With this manager and his terrible away record - 1 win out of 27 - no chance of turning it around. With a new technical director in place, we need a new coach with a different mind set; football on display would be more creative and hopefully we could play well away from home. IMO.
Oh I do hope this page is going to be updated on a regular basis!!!!!!
ReplyDeleteWell Mr Kanwar, the current situation, after we lost at HOME to WOLVES, is this: Won 6, Draw 4 Lost 8. Funnily enough, we are far more near to the proposed 10 loss than the 20 won! This is considering we still have to play teams like Arsenal and Chelsea AWAY! The truth is that we not only regressed away, since we are almost loosing all of them, we are also regressing at HOME! If Hodgson continues, well, my optimistic side tells me we will finish 14th at best!
ReplyDelete